Yes. We’ve seen this movie before.

In both 1995 and 1997, Tennessee featured one of the greatest QBs in the history of the sport… and lost at Florida.

In 1999, Tennessee was coming off 2 straight SEC titles and a national championship… and lost at Florida.

In 2005, Tennessee saw its punter go rogue… and lost at Florida.

In both 2015 and 2017, Tennessee gave up go-ahead 63-yard TDs in the waning moments… and lost at Florida.

Since 1977, the Vols have played against Florida in Gainesville 19 times… and won twice. Only the 2001 and 2003 Tennessee teams could break through, thanks to a QB who never seemed to get rattled in Casey Clausen, and a roster filled to the brim with NFL talent. This test in futility is now at 10 straight losses for the Vols.

Tennessee has finally gotten on a level playing surface when these teams meet in Knoxville, winning 3 of the last 5 at Neyland Stadium. But even those games are close, with the last 2 wins decided on the final play each time. It doesn’t matter if it’s Phillip Fulmer or Lane “Sing Rocky Top all night long at Florida” Kiffin or Derek Dooley or Butch Jones or Jeremy Pruitt or Josh Heupel as head coach, Tennessee just doesn’t win down there.

In fact, the Vols rarely play close to their potential, while Florida goes to another level. When these teams play in Gainesville, the Vols look like 2021 UMass while Florida looks like 2001 Miami.

But why is that the case? Yes, Florida had some really good squads under Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer, but quite often Tennessee has had as much talent, if not more than its (former) SEC East rivals. For whatever reason, Tennessee plays tight at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Some of those games, especially the 2015 and 2017 matchups, should have been won by the Vols, but Butch Jones panicked time and time again. Remember “The Chart?” Tennessee fans certainly remember “The Chart.”

It doesn’t matter if most of Tennessee’s roster wasn’t even born yet the last time the Vols won in Gainesville. That history hangs over the program, especially with #VolTwitter. Last weekend, when Florida nearly pulled the upset in Oxford, social media was loud with Tennessee lamenting how Florida finally looks decent just in time for Tennessee to come to town. This game haunts the soul of Vols fans.

Tennessee is 7-3 and out of the Playoff hunt (even if SEC commissioner Greg Sankey thinks the Vols are 1 of 8 SEC teams that should get into the field of 12). You can make a case that if a couple of bounces go their way, this is a 9-1 Vols team. On the other hand, Florida is 3-7, fired its head coach a few weeks ago, and got destroyed by Kentucky 38-7 in Lexington, only 2 weeks after Tennessee destroyed Kentucky 56-34 in Lexington.

The Vols are coming off a fairly lackluster 42-9 win over New Mexico State. QB Joey Aguilar is putting up historic numbers, completing 66% of his passes for 2,941 yards and 22 TDs, although the 10 INTs are troubling. Tennessee has the 2nd-ranked offense in the nation in both scoring, at 43.4 points per game, and total offense, at 495 yards per game. WR Chris Brazzell is a matchup nightmare with 873 receiving yards and 8 scores this season. DeSean Bishop has been solid, rushing for 770 yards and 10 TDs.

Florida’s offense? Not good. Tied for 111th in scoring with 20.8 points per game and ranked 106th in total offense at 339.5 yards per game. Sophomore QB D.J. Lagway has not lived to expectations, throwing more INTs (13) than TD passes (12), while averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. Sophomore Jadan Baugh has made a jump this season, with nearly 81 rushing yards per game to go with 6 scores, but overall this isn’t an offense which should strike fear into UT DC Tim Banks.

The problem? Tennessee’s defense is also not good. The Vols are giving up 28.9 points per game (95th nationally) and 390.3 yards per game (85th nationally). They can still get to the opposing QB, averaging 3.3 sacks per game, tied for 4th best in the country. But overall this isn’t a defense which should strike fear into UF OC Russ Callaway.

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The Gators’ defense is led by LB Myles Graham, who has 60 tackles this season. They are allowing 366.3 yards per game (63rd in the FBS) and 23.6 points per game (tied for 62nd in the FBS).

Florida isn’t going to play in a bowl game. The Gators’ fans are tracking planes, hoping that Lane Kiffin decides to show up and save their program. Tennessee still has a shot at winning 10 games for the third time in 4 years, something that hasn’t been done since 2004. On paper, it’s Tennessee’s time to snap this losing streak.

Back in 2022, with Tennessee suffering a 15-game losing streak to Alabama, the Fearless Prediction said that we needed to see Tennessee beat Alabama before we’d ever pick Tennessee to beat Alabama. Well, Tennessee beat Alabama. So picking the Vols to win that game isn’t a weird thought these days.

But when it comes to Tennessee-Florida games in Gainesville… we need to see Tennessee leading Florida on the scoreboard when the clock strikes zero and the teams, the refs, and fans and maybe even the cleaning crews have left the stadium. Until then, we just can’t live with ourselves if we make the call for the Vols. We have decades of research telling us what’s going to happen Saturday night.

Fearless Prediction: Florida 25, Tennessee 23

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The Vols are now sitting at 6-3, and the next 3 weeks will tell us a lot about how the 2025 Tennessee Volunteers will be remembered. We will talk more about the Florida and Vanderbilt games in the weeks to come, but for now let’s focus on the Aggies.

It’s been a rough season for New Mexico State. The Aggies currently are in 10th place in Conference USA with a 3-6 record, plus an 0-4 mark on the road. Senior QB Logan Fife is only completing 55% of his passes, and has 11 INTs to go with his 11 TD passes. Junior Donovan Faupel is his go-to guy in the passing game, with 43 grabs for 503 yards and 5 scores.

The Aggies will need to move the football through the air, because as a team they are ranked dead-last nationally when it comes to running the ball, averaging only 69.1 yards per game. Kadarius Calloway gets a little less than 10 carries a game and averages under 35 rushing yards per contest… and he leads the Aggies in rushing.

Defensively, lineman Ezra Christensen has 37 tackles and a team-high 6 sacks for the Aggies. Overall they are allowing 25.2 points per game, 77th best nationally.

As for the Vols, despite their struggles on offense in the loss to Oklahoma, they are still ranked 1st in the country in total offense at 504.1 yards per game, and ranked 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game. Seventh-year QB Joey Aguilar is making the most of his final season of eligibility, throwing for over 304 yards per game and 21 TD passes. Alabama’s Ty Simpson and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia get more attention, but Aguilar is the top-rated QB in the SEC. If the Vols were sitting at 8-1 instead of 6-3, Aguilar would be getting a lot more publicity. Chris Brazzell II, Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews have become one the top trios of pass catchers in the nation, averaging a combined 238.8 receiving yards per game, with 17 total TDs.

Maybe one of the reasons for New Mexico State’s ineptitude on the ground is that Star Thomas is no longer in Las Cruces. Thomas spent 2 seasons (2022-2023) with the Aggies before transferring to Duke, and today is second on the Vols in rushing with 428 yards this season. DeSean Bishop is still at the top of the Vols’ chart in rushing with 690 yards.

Back in 2012, the Vols’ offense was one of the best in the country. That group, led QB Tyler Bray, WRs Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Zach Rogers, TE Mychal Rivera and RBs Raijon Neal and Marlin Lane, plus a bunch of offensive linemen who would play in the NFL, averaged over 36 points a game. But the Vols’ defense was dreadful, allowing 35.7 points per game, placing them 109th in the country. If they had a top-40 defense, that team probably goes 10-2 instead of 5-7.

In 2025, you can make a similar case because this is a Playoff-caliber Tennessee offense. However, Tennessee is ranked 97th in total defense (395.9 yards allowed per game) and 113th in scoring defense (31.1 points allowed per game). LB Arion Carter continues to fight through injury, leading the Vols with 63 tackles. But you wonder what this team would have looked like had cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson been on the field. Injuries have cost McCoy the entire season, while Gibson only played in the season opener.

This isn’t a great Tennessee team, but that won’t matter on Saturday.

Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 52, New Mexico State 10

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This week we take a look at the Tennessee/Oklahoma game. These 2 teams first played in the 1939 Orange Bowl, a 17-0 Tennessee victory. But over the last 86 years there is a very limited history between the Vols and Sooners, with a total of only 5 previous meetings. In 2015, future Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield led Oklahoma to a furious comeback and a 31-24 double OT win over Tennessee. That game is still on the short list for sustained noise at Neyland Stadium. It was 4 hours of absolute bedlam.

Fast-forwarding to the present day, Saturday evening has the potential to also be unhinged. Tennessee gets its first and only home night game of the season at Neyland, and it’ll break out the black “Dark Mode” jerseys. Throw in a very long day of tailgating and just to be safe, and security better be on the lookout for golf balls and mustard bottles.

The stakes are pretty high. Following Tennessee’s blowout win at Kentucky and Oklahoma’s home loss to Ole Miss, both the Vols and Sooners sit at 6-2. The winner of this game still has Playoff hopes. The loser of this game is all but eliminated from Playoff consideration.

Last weekend, Tennessee’s offense got its swerve back following a disappointing performance at Alabama. The Vols gained 504 yards, QB Joey Aguilar threw for 396 of those, and 3 UT pass catchers (Chris Brazzell, Mike Matthews, Braylon Staley) each collected over 100 receiving yards themselves. UT decided to take a knee in the UK red zone in the final 2 minutes, otherwise they probably crack the 60-point mark. The Vols’ offense is more than capable of keeping it in every game the rest of the way.

Tennessee’s defense? Well, that’s a concern. Yes, Edrees Farooq had a pick-6, and a Jadon Perlotte fumble recovery deep in UK territory led to another Vols TD, but giving up 34 points to one of the worst offenses in the SEC is troubling. Tennessee’s defensive backfield is still ravaged by injuries, and it shows. The Vols hope to have leading tackler Arion Carter back for Oklahoma after the junior LB wasn’t able to go against Kentucky.

Oklahoma’s strength lies in its defense, but that group looked shaky against Ole Miss. The Sooners’ defense is allowing less than 10 points per game, but gave up 34 against the Rebels. The 413 yards OU surrendered was more than double its season average. Was that game an aberration? Well, we will know more this weekend as one of the best defenses in the country matches wits with one of the best offenses in the FBS.

But what about Oklahoma’s offense? Can they keep pace with Tennessee’s? QB John Mateer had surgery on this hand a month ago, and has yet to return to form. Against Ole Miss, he completed 17 of his 31 passes for 223 yards, missing open receivers multiple times. Making matters worse, this is an Oklahoma team that does not run the football well. The Sooners are averaging only 130.1 rushing yards per game, placing them in a tie for 99th in the FBS. This is all music to the ears of Tennessee’s defense.

The Vols are a very tough team to beat at Neyland Stadium. Since late November 2021, Tennessee is 23-2 in Knoxville, and those 2 losses were to SEC and national powerhouse Georgia. They might struggle (much of the time) on the road, but Josh Heupel’s group feeds off the home crowd energy.

Speaking of Heupel, much like last season’s win in Norman, a victory on Saturday night would mean everything to him. Heupel was OU’s star QB in 2000, the last time the Sooners won the national title. His firing in 2014 after serving as an Oklahoma assistant coach for a decade has been well-documented, and left some scars.

Team momentum, personal motivation, game location… don’t overthink this result.

Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 31, Oklahoma 20

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For the second-straight week, it’s a border battle, and the Vols are much happier to be heading north for this one. Their journey south was another exercise in futility. Tennessee’s 37-20 loss at Alabama was the 11th-straight time that it has fallen in Tuscaloosa. Everything that went right for the Vols during the first 6 games of the season was nowhere to be seen against the Crimson Tide.

QB Joey Aguilar was sacked 4 times in that game. Tennessee’s offensive line had allowed 4 sacks all year to that point. Tennessee’s defense, which was leading the nation in sacks, didn’t record a single sack of Alabama QB Ty Simpson. The Vols’ offense, tops in the nation in points scored going into that game, was held more than 4 TDs off its average. Tennessee’s offense actually gave Alabama 9 points in the form of a safety on a brutal intentional grounding toss by Aguilar, and then a brutal goal-line throw by Aguilar which turned into a pick-6 at the end of the first half. Tennessee was also penalized 10 times in this game, mistakes which damaged multiple drives. Head coach Josh Heupel once again made some very questionable calls, including going for 2 (and failing) early in the third quarter while down 10 points (even Butch Jones’s chart doesn’t say to go for 2 at that juncture).

Nationally, the Vols are still ranked second in scoring offense (tied with Oregon at 44.1 points per game) and fifth in total offense (511 yards per game), but the Alabama performance was troubling. It was a lost opportunity… however, Tennessee still (probably? possibly? maybe?) controls its own destiny in terms of the College Football Playoff. Win out and the Vols would end up 10-2 for the second year in a row. That’s 10-2 while playing an SEC schedule, with your 2 losses against teams (UGA, Bama) who will likely each be in the field of 12. That is a compelling résumé for the committee to consider.

So, the sooner Tennessee can put the Alabama loss aside, the better, and there’s no better way to do that than against the team you have dominated for decades. Since 1985, Tennessee has played Kentucky 40 times, with the Vols winning 37 of those games and losing on only 3 occasions.

What do we know about this year’s Wildcats? Well, at 2-4 UK is still looking for its first SEC win. Last weekend, it took Texas to overtime before falling 16-13. In that game, Kentucky’s defense allowed only 179 yards of offense, by far its best performance of the season. Senior LB Alex Amari Jr. leads the team with 39 tackles and is second on the team with 3.5 sacks.

Offensively, UK is only gaining 342.2 yards per game, 103rd nationally. Scoring offense? Not much better at 22.5 points per game, 102nd in the FBS. But there is reason for optimism after redshirt freshman QB Cutter Boley had a big day against the Longhorns, completing 31 for 39 passes for 258 yards, while collecting 45 rushing yards. RB Seth McGowan, who came to Kentucky via Oklahoma, Butler CC and New Mexico State, is gaining nearly 80 rushing yards a game. Alabama transfer WR Kendrick Law leads the Cats with 22 catches, but for only 199 yards. Averaging 9 yards per reception won’t strike fear into the Vols’ secondary, even in its injured state.

Kentucky football is not in a good place right now. The Wildcats have lost 9 straight SEC games, and you can’t read about head coach Mark Stoops without reading the word “buyout.” If he’s fired, UK is believed to owe him approximately $38 million. Considering the Wildcats’ situation these days, a win over Tennessee would make their season.

Tennessee is still licking its wounds from the Bama loss, and the Vols have proven to often be a shaky group away from the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium under Heupel. But in this era of college football, where the only constant is change, there has to be something we can count on… right?

Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 21

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This has often been a streaky series, with Alabama winning 11 in a row between 1971 and 1981, and 15 in a row between 2007 and 2021. Tennessee has had its time in control as well, beating the Crimson Tide 7 straight times between 1995 and 2001. Alabama leads the overall series 59-40-8. No team has beaten Tennessee more times than Alabama, and no team has beaten Alabama more times than Tennessee.

Since 1901, this border battle has featured some of the all-time greats and has given fans memories that have lasted long after they stopped putting on the pads.

In recent years this has once again become a rivalry, with Tennessee finally doing its part to make the game matter. The Vols have won 2 of the last 3 meetings with Alabama, both wins which prompted stormings of Shields-Watkins Field. But this time the game will be played Bryant-Denny Stadium, a place UT hasn’t won since 2003.

”The report of my death was an exaggeration.”

Mark Twain gave that quote to the Associated Press in 1897, but the Alabama football program could have easily released that same statement earlier this season. Some left them for dead following the Tide’s season opening 31-17 loss at Florida State. Since then Alabama has won 5 in a row, including nail bitters at Georgia and Mizzou.

Alabama is most certainly back.

There’s a parallel universe where Ty Simpson is the Vols’ QB, but the Martin, Tennessee, native chose Alabama in 2021. He bided his time and now, in his 4th year in Tuscaloosa, is flourishing in his first season as a starter. Simpson has completed 71% of his passes for 1,678 yards, 16 TDs and only 1 INT. Senior Germie Bernard has emerged as Simpson’s top option in the passing game, as Bernard leads the Tide with a team-high 28 catches, 412 receiving yards and 5 TDs. RB Jam Miller missed the first 3 games due to injury but has averaged 89 rushing yards per game in the last 3 contests.

Defensively, pass rusher LT Overton is having a very good year with 5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. LB Justin Jefferson has a team-high 41 tackles. They are ranked in the top 20 nationally in total defense (allowing 293.4 yards per game) and scoring defense (allowing 16 points per game).

Can Tennessee win this game? Absolutely. QB Joey Aguilar is a couple of wins away from Dalton Knecht 1-and-done legend status at Tennessee. Through 6 games, he has completed 65% of his passes for 1680 yards and 14 TDs while leading Tennessee to a 5-1 record. Aguilar has had a lot of help, too. Chris Brazzell II, Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews are combining for more than 230 receiving yards and 1.8 scores per game. DeSean Bishop, Star Thomas and Peyton Lewis are combining for more than 168 rushing yards and 2.3 TDs per game.

Offensively, the Vols are first in the nation in scoring at 48.2 points per game and fourth in total offense with 527.8 yards per game. Defensively? Tennessee has a lot of work to do. Against Arkansas, the Vols gave up 12 plays of at least 15 yards. Now, they might be ranked 100th in total defense (393.8 yards allowed per game), but this is an opportunistic group. The Vols are averaging 4.3 sacks per game, which puts them at the top of the FBS in that category. Joshua Josephs, Tyre West, Dominic Bailey and Caleb Herring each have at least 3 sacks and continue to create havoc up front.

In that Arkansas game, the Vols forced 4 fumbles, recovering 3 of them. All told, they’ve collected 11 turnovers this season. Tennessee’s defense is making enough plays to get by, but you wonder if that luck runs out against an Alabama team which has only turned the football over twice this season.

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This game is very important in the College Football Playoff chase. The winner greatly improves its chances of making the field of 12. The loser would have 2 losses, and probably no more room for error the rest of the season.

Ten straight times the Vols have traveled to Alabama, and 10 straight times they have watched rival fans lighting up cigars. These games have rarely been close. Only twice since 2005 has the Tuscaloosa meeting ended as a 1-score game. Tennessee is obviously in a much better position today than it was during the darkest times of the Nick Saban era, but winning down there is a big ask of this team… or any team. Since the start of the 2008 season, the Crimson Tide are 110-5 at home.

The Fearless Prediction needs to see Tennessee win a game down there before we pick them to win this game.

Fearless Prediction: Alabama 35, Tennessee 27

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Tennessee fans hoping for their first night game of the season were disappointed that the powers that be gave Vols-Hogs a 4:15 p.m. kickoff. But it’s looking like a picture-perfect day for football in Knoxville.

Let’s talk about the visitors first because, man… there’s a lot to talk about when it comes to Arkansas football.

The Sam Pittman experiment ended following 5+ seasons and a 32-34 overall record, 14-29 in SEC play. The final straw for Pittman came on Sept. 27, when the Razorbacks lost at home to Notre Dame 56-13.

But do not weep for the quirky, yet likable, Pittman. Further proof that the buyout life remains undefeated, Pittman will receive nearly $10 million as a parting gift.

The interim coach at Fayetteville? Meet the new boss… same as the old boss. Bobby Petrino rides again! Petrino was the head coach at Arkansas from 2008-2011 and most recently had been working as the Arkansas OC, but he is best known for a motorcycle crash in 2012 which led to his firing. Young people, get on the Google machine. It was quite the saga.

But Petrino has 7 weeks to prove to Arkansas boosters that he should be given the job full-time once again. Heck, stranger things have happened. Remember, Petrino got the Louisville gig twice.

Does he have a lot to work with? Offensively his group is pretty good. Ranked 8th in total offense (514.6 yards per game) and 22nd in scoring offense (37.4 points per game), the Razorbacks rely on QB Taylen Green to do a lot. Green throws for 279.6 yards per game, with 12 TD passes and 5 INTs. He also leads the team in rushing with 88.2 yards per game. He carries the football more than 10 times a game, exposing him to more and more hits. Mike Washington is 2nd on the team in rushing with 78.6 yards per game. O’Mega Blake is tops in receiving with 79.8 yards per game.

For the most part, Petrino has that offense moving in the right direction. Defensively? There’s a lot of work to do. The Razorbacks are ranked 117th in total defense (425 yards per game allowed) and 109th in scoring defense (30 points per game allowed). That doesn’t bode well for Arkansas because the Vols’ offense is clicking at a level not seen since its record setting 2022 unit. The Vols are scoring 51 points per game, top in the FBS. Their 536.4 yards per game places them 6th nationally in total offense. QB Joey Aguilar and WR Chris Brazzell II are each playing at such a high level that their names are being mentioned for major postseason award consideration.

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The Vols’ defense took a hit statistically in that Mississippi State game, and is now 76th in total defense (373.4 yards per game allowed) and 102nd in scoring defense (29 points per game allowed). Arion Carter continues to lead the team with 49 tackles. Joshua Josephs is up to 5.5 tackles for loss and 4 sacks. And right there is what the Vols can hang its hat on defensively. UT is tied for first nationally with 4.2 sacks per game. Getting pressure on Green will be key for the Vols to win this game.

One year ago, the Vols were upset 19-14 by the Razorbacks in Fayetteville. This is a chance for the Vols to get some revenge for that game, and 3 others. Tennessee has lost its last 4 meetings with Arkansas.

Tennessee has had 2 weeks to get ready for this game. It gets the game at Neyland Stadium, a place the Vols haven’t lost to an opponent not named Georgia since November 2021. There is no excuse to lose this game… and they won’t.

Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 42, Arkansas 21

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But this weekend it feels like we’ve got a tricky matchup to prognosticate as Tennessee heads to Starkville to play Mississippi State.

The Vols are 3-1, winning the games convincingly that that should be winning convincingly, while losing a heartbreaker against the current standard bearer in the league. One third into the season, Tennessee is a contender to get back into the College Football Playoff.

Let’s dive in to why the Vols are having early offensive success. While the 2024 Vols offense got the job done with a strong rushing attack, the 2025 Vols are putting up stats not seen since their historic 2022 campaign. Tennessee is ranked 6th nationally in both total offense (568.7 yards per game) and scoring offense (52.7 points per game).

In 2022 it was 6th-year college QB Hendon Hooker running the show. In 2025, it is 7th-year college QB Joey Aguilar controlling things. Now, there’s another conversation to be had about the appeal of picking up experienced QBs in the portal, letting them get their feet wet at smaller schools so they can be better prepared years later on the big stage. Aguilar certainly has proven he’s ready for prime time. Tennessee’s basically lost Nico Iamaleava and gained Aguilar… for less money, the greatest southern deal since the Louisiana Purchase.

Aguilar is completing 67% of his passes while averaging 281 yards through the air per game (while basically playing only the first half in the ETSU and UAB wins).

Tennessee has seen marked improvement from receivers Chris Brazzell II, Braylen Staley and Mike Matthews, the running game hasn’t missed much following the departure of Dylan Sampson, and the entire unit moves the football much more efficiently under Aguilar’s leadership.

Tennessee is ranked 85th nationally in total defense. Some key injuries aren’t helping matters, and this group has to get healthy in order to be more competitive as the schedule picks up a notch in the second half of the season. It’s no surprise that junior LB Arion Carter leads the team in tackles with 32.

The Vols are back in the national college football conversation. They have been for a few years and there’s no reason to believe that’s going to change. But this Saturday? If you look up “trap game” in the college football dictionary, you’ll see Tennessee vs. Mississippi State in the opening lines. Tennessee has a bye week coming up after this game. The Vols still have Alabama and Oklahoma coming up in the next few weeks.

But maybe the trappiest part of this game for the Vols? Mississippi State looks better than expected. The Bulldogs are 4-0, which includes a victory over Arizona State. Sixth-year QB Blake Shapen, a Baylor transfer, is completing 66% os his passes, throwing for over 220 yards per game. Brenen Thompson and Georgia transfer Anthony Evans III have combined for 38 catches, 581 yards and 5 TDs. The rushing attack isn’t very stout, but South Alabama transfer Fluff Bothwell is averaging 68 yards on the ground per game.

Defensively, MSU safeties Issac Smith and Jahron Manning and LB Nic Mitchell each have at least 21 tackles.

Is this a team that is going to be in the mix for what would be their first SEC championship in 84 years? No. Are they going to be more of a problem for SEC opponents than they have been in recent years? So far it looks that way.

Even though Mississippi State is nowhere near the toughest game on Tennessee’s schedule, there is reason for concern. Winning on the road in the SEC is never easy. Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel’s best SEC road win remains its 2022 victory over LSU in Baton Rouge. Other than that, the Vols just haven’t answered the bell against a good opponent.

But in this case, I just think that Tennessee’s roster advantage is too much for Mississippi State to overcome. The Vols have more talent in every aspect of the game.

Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 34, Mississippi State 24

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While college football fans witness the mess that is UCLA football on a weekly basis, it becomes more and more clear that Tennessee won that QB trade in a major way. Nico Iamaleava is in Los Angeles starting for one of the worst teams in the sport while Joey Aguilar is in Knoxville, putting up impressive numbers for a Playoff contender.

Aguilar has thrown for over 900 total yards in 3 games, including a 371-yard passing day against Georgia. That’s no small feat against a Kirby Smart defense. He accounted for 5 total TDs in that overtime loss, and now sees his name on a few Heisman Trophy finalist betting boards. However, that factoid is just for fun. The Fearless Prediction believes a Tennessee player wins the Heisman the same day that the sun sets in the East.

Aguilar is the leader of the nation’s 6th best scoring offense (52.7 points per game) and total offense (568.7 yards per game). But he’s not doing it alone. Chris Brazzell II, Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews have emerged as one of the best pass catching trios in the SEC, with a combined 51 catches for 794 yards and 8 TDs. And while the running game wasn’t a huge factor against Georgia, the Vols are still averaging 210 yards on the ground per contest, with Star Thomas and DeSean Bishop leading the way.

Defensively, Tennessee’s Arion Carter is up to a team-high 27 tackles, with Joshua Josephs leading the Vols with 3 sacks on the season. UT fans can only wonder what might have been had defensive backs Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson been healthy enough to go against Georgia.

It’s Fall Family Weekend on The Hill, as students attempt to show their parents a good time, proving that their tuition monies are being put to good use by treating them to watching Trent Dilfer coach a football game.

The Dilfer experiment has gone so poorly that some Blazers fans are wishing their program was still dissolved. Since the football team was reborn in 2017, they averaged 8.3 wins in 6 seasons under Bill Clark and Bryant Vincent. Under Dilfer, the Blazers only won 7 games total in 2023 and 2024. UAB is 9-18 in a little over 2 years with Dilfer at the helm, and while the Blazers are 2-1 this season, those wins have come against Alabama State (FCS) and Akron (FBS doormat).

UAB is led by QB Jalen Kitna, one of only 3 starters who returned this season in Birmingham. In a parallel universe, Kitna could have been a Vol, but he turned down a scholarship offer from Tennessee in 2020. He chose Florida instead, mostly sitting on the bench for 2 years. Now in his second season at UAB, Kitna is putting up good numbers against lesser competition. This season he’s completed 70% of his passes for nearly 300 yards per game, with 6 TDs and 3 INTs. Corri Milliner and Iverson Hooks are his go to guys, combining for 33 catches, 497 yards and 5 scores. Austin Peay/UTEP transfer redshirt senior Jevon Jackson is rushing for over 90 yards a game.

Defensively, safety Pierre Royster leads the team in tackles with 23. LB Chris Burge leads the team in sacks with 2.5.

The trappiest of trap games for the Vols is coming up next weekend in Starkville, and the Fearless Prediction might type up 800 words on that topic alone. But we won’t look ahead just yet, and neither will the Vols. Much like the ETSU game, the Vols will be looking to rest their starters as quickly as possible.

Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 49, UAB 10

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The Tennessee-UGA series stretches all the way back to 1899, a 5-0 win for the Vols in Knoxville. Four years later, Georgia returned the favor, winning 5-0. The Fearless Prediction doesn’t anticipate another 5-0 result this time around.

We might only be 2 games into the campaign, and the competition might not exactly have been the tops in the sport, but Tennessee’s offense looks a lot more like the 2022 version than the 2024 group. The Vols are averaging 605 yards of offense a game, second-best in the FBS. They’re scoring 58.5 points per game, fourth-best nationally. QB Joey Aguilar is running the show like the veteran he is, despite only being on the UT campus since the spring. He’s completing 66% of his passes with 5 TD tosses and no INTs.

The Vols look like they’ve won their “trade” with UCLA.

Going into the season, Tennessee’s wide receiving corps was questioned, but so far they’ve been making some big plays. Chris Brazzell II, Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews have a combined 31 catches for 461 yards and 4 TDs. Another trio is turning heads as well in the running game. Star Thomas, DeSean Bishop and Peyton Lewis have combined for 368 rushing yards and 6 scores. Aguilar is commanding a balanced offensive attack.

As for the Tennessee defense, it’s no surprise that junior LB Arion Carter is the team leader in tackles with 13, including 2 tackles for loss. Redshirt senior DB Jalen McMurray leads the secondary with 10 tackles, second-best on the team.

But Tennessee will be without its 2 best cornerbacks against Georgia. Jermod McCoy is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered last January, and Rickey Gibson will also be on the sidelines due to injury. This puts pressure on Colorado/Auburn transfer Colton Hood and true freshman Ty Redmond, who have each played very well this season. Hood has 5 pass breakups, best in the SEC. Redmond has 6 tackles and 3 pass breakups.

As for the Georgia Bulldogs, they look like their typical selves defensively. Currently 8th in the FBS in total defense (allowing 201.5 ypg) and 9th in scoring defense (allowing 6.5 ppg). They are allowing only 61.5 rushing yards a game. Their front 7 is a force, led by two junior LBs. Raylen Wilson leads the team in tackles with 14 and C.J. Allen is second with 11 tackles.

But UGA is coming off a fairly lackluster 28-6 win over Austin Peay. QB Gunner Stockton is more mobile than his predecessor Carson Beck, but not as willing or able to consistently challenge secondaries. He’s completing 69% of his passes, mostly only a few yards from the line of scrimmage. Stockton now has 4 starts for the Bulldogs, but this will be his first road game, in front of what will be a raucous “Checker Neyland” crowd.

Zachariah Branch and Colbie Young are Stockton’s go-to options, combining for 15 catches for 218 yards this season. The running game with Nate Frazier, Dwight Phillips Jr. and Chauncey Bowens is more than capable, with 320 rushing yards and 5 scores among that trio.

Back in 1990s, the Vols owned this series with Georgia, eventually winning 9 in a row. When the good times are rolling, they feel like they will never end. I was at Tennessee’s 22-3 victory in Athens, and watched as dejected Bulldogs fans walked out of Sanford Stadium with a few minutes remaining. A Tennessee fan held up a placard with the number 8 on it, signifying UT’s 8th-straight win in the series. He turned the sign sideways and yelled, “We beat you infinity times!”

Right now, Georgia is the team riding an 8-game winning streak over Tennessee, and none of those games have been close. The Bulldogs have outscored the Vols 303-104 during that stretch, an average beating of 37.9-13. Vols head coach Josh Heupel has had a lot of success against all comers in his 4+ years at the helm, especially at Neyland Stadium. But beating Kirby Smart is something he hasn’t been able to accomplish. They haven’t been able to score more than 17 points against the Bulldogs in his 4 previous meetings.

There is a lot to like about this Tennessee football team, and they are legit contenders to get back into the College Football Playoff. But the Fearless Prediction has been burned before, and won’t be fooled again. We need to see Tennessee win a game against Georgia… before we pick Tennessee to win a game against Georgia.

Fearless Prediction: Georgia 31, Tennessee 21

The post Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Georgia appeared first on Saturday Down South.

The SEC finally made the decision to expand to 9 conference games, starting in 2026. The league already requires 1 contest annually against a Power 4 conference opponent so that leaves only 2 “paycheck” games for the Vols each season. ETSU will receive $575,000 to make the 100 minute bus ride from Johnson City to Knoxville. The next time this game could be played is in 2028, so get those VCRs rolling!

Tennessee wasn’t perfect in its 45-26 win over Syracuse, but there’s a lot for the Vols to build on. City College of San Francisco/Diablo Valley College/Appalachian State/UCLA transfer QB Joey Aguilar went 16-for-28 for 247 yards and 3 TDs against the Orange. He connected on a deep ball, a 73-yard TD pass to Braylon Staley. Big plays like that one didn’t happen very often a year ago. Aguilar also ran for 34 yards. Those numbers were better than what Tennessee fans saw out of Nico Iamaleava most weekends.

The 3-headed monster of Star Thomas, DeSean Bishop and Peyton Lewis combined for 212 rushing yards and 2 TDs.

Defensively, the Vols got a lot of pressure on Syracuse QB Steve Angeli, sacking him 5 times. They also forced him into a fumble, which was returned by Colton Hood for a score. Junior LB Arion Carter led all players with 9 tackles. Senior edge rusher Joshua Josephs had 7 tackles. Both of those guys are gonna make a lot of money in the NFL next year, so enjoy watching them while you can, Tennessee fans.

As for ETSU, they got off to a great start to the 2025 season with a 45-17 win over Murray State. The Buccaneers rushed for nearly 400 yards in that game. Senior RB Devontae Houston scored twice and picked up 128 yards on the ground, averaging over 9 yards per carry. In the passing game, 7 different receivers made at least 1 catch, as Cade McNamara threw for 146 yards on 12 of 17 attempts.

Wait. Cade McNamara? Yes indeed! The same Cade McNamara who spent 4 years at Michigan, leading them to the Big Ten title in 2021. The same Cade McNamara who spent 2 years at Iowa and then transferred to ETSU last January.

This Tennessee/ETSU game is a matchup of 7th-year QBs. Stay in school, kids.

On defense, senior LB Ty Anderson had 8 tackles against the Racers, including 2.5 TFL’s.

Next week the Vols will host Georgia in what will be Tennessee’s biggest home game of the 2025 season. Josh Heupel is trying to beat UGA for the first time in 5 tries. Tennessee is hoping to snap what is now an 8-game losing streak against the Bulldogs. The Vols have been able to slay the dragon against its 2 other main rivals, going a combined 4-4 against Florida and Alabama under Heupel, but not Georgia.

Heupel would like to get his starters out of this game as soon as possible to keep them healthy for the Georgia game.

Back in 2018, the Vols beat ETSU 59-3 in the only previous meeting between these schools. You should expect a similar result this time as well.

Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 52, ETSU 10

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The Fearless Prediction has spent the last 8 months working tirelessly on its craft. From the Grand Tetons of Wyoming to the beaches of Anguilla, we’ve left no pebble unturned, researching every college football lead. This is the year we will take down all the haters, and prognosticate each Tennessee Volunteers football game with ruthless aggression.

Let’s not waste any time, and jump right in. On August 30, Tennessee kicks off the 2025 season with a nonconference Power 4 opponent (woo!) at a neutral site (boo!). Is it so difficult to book a return flight? Heck, I’m old enough to remember the Vols playing against Pittsburgh… in Pittsburgh! Punt neutral-site regular-season CFB games into the sun. Tennessee will play Syracuse… in Atlanta, because that’s just what we do now.

It was quite the offseason for the Vols. They saw their 5-star QB leave for less green pastures in Southern California, which led to what was basically CFB’s first QB trade. One of Tennessee’s best players, defensive back Boo Carter, missed a lot of team activities, was dressed down by team leaders, and is now back in the (semi) good graces of Vol Nation. An arrest warrant was issued for former Vol Grant Frerking after he was outed for (allegedly) being the mastermind of an elaborate pine straw delivery scheme.

Knoxville is never boring.

Let’s look at the 2025 Vols on offense. Exit Nico Iamaleava, enter former Appalachian State QB (and for a few weeks UCLA QB) Joey Aguilar, who won the starting job over redshirt freshman Jake Merklinger and true freshman George MacIntyre. This wasn’t a huge surprise, as Aguilar was the only guy with any significant game experience. He threw for 6760 yards and 56 TDs in two seasons at Appalachian State.

At running back, there are even bigger cleats to fill, with SEC offensive player of the year Dylan Sampson now with the Cleveland Browns following a record-setting 2024 season for the Vols. The good news is that DeSean Bishop and Peyton Lewis appear to be ready to pick up the slack. Bishop and Lewis combined for 894 rushing yards and 6 scores last season.

Tennessee’s wide receiver position… well there’s some work to do there with Bru McCoy, Squirrel White and Dont’e Thornton no longer at UT. They combined for 99 catches, 1,514 yards and 10 TDs in 2024. There are only 7 receivers on the roster earning scholarships. For the Vols’ sake, you hope that 5-star pass catcher Mike Matthews makes the jump, following a freshman season in which he had trouble getting on the field, making only 7 receptions. Chris Brazzell II is the Vols top returning pass catcher with 29 grabs, including the diving score that helped Tennessee beat Alabama last October. Look for TE Miles Kitselman to improve on his 22 catches a year ago as a safety valve for Aguilar.

The Vols’ offensive line only brings back 1 starter in left tackle Lance Heard. Five-star David Sanders, Notre Dame transfer Sam Pendleton and Arizona transfer Wendell Moe Jr. are each expected to start against Syracuse and must be big contributors for Tennessee to get to double digits in victories once again in 2025.

Defensively, Tennessee has as much depth as we’ve seen in a long time. Yes, they lost edge rusher James Pearce Jr. to the NFL, but there are playmakers all over the field. LB Arion Carter returns after leading the Vols in tackles with 68 in 2024. Jeremiah Telander makes up the second half of a stout linebacking crew. Up front, Joshua Josephs (39 tackles, 9 tackles for a loss last season), Bryson Eason (7 tackles for a loss last season) and Jaxson Moi bring experience and some attitude to that defensive line. In the secondary, a lot relies on how well Jermod McCoy recovers from a torn ACL he suffered while working out at his home last January.

As for Syracuse, the Orange were a surprise 10-3 in 2024, but it’s going to be really tough for them to match that success this fall. In addition to the Tennessee game, Syracuse plays at Clemson, SMU and Notre Dame. Each of those 4 opponents made the College Football Playoff last season. Syracuse also has to go to Miami.

Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli won the starting QB job, but who is going to help him? WR Darrell Gill Jr. is his top returning playmaker with 31 catches a year ago, averaging over 18 yards per grab. Texas transfer receiver Johntay Cook II will get his chances. Other than that, the shelves are not stocked. Their best RB (LeQuint Allen) and top 3 WRs are all gone. For Syracuse to have a chance at the upset, it must do a lot of what made it thrive a year ago. The Orange were 6th in the nation in time of possession at over 33 minutes per game, which would serve the dual purpose of limiting possessions for Tennessee’s fast-paced group.

On defense, Syracuse needs a lot from 8th-year senior DE David Reese. No, that’s not a typo. The 8th-year senior played 5 injury-filled seasons at Florida before recording 50 tackles and 11 sacks in his 2 years at Cal. I’m rooting for him to get a 9th-year because college is fun.

So what can we expect from this game? It’s tough to predict early season contests because we haven’t seen these teams play yet, and a lot can change from year to year. But maybe we can learn something from the past. Back in 1998, Tennessee opened the regular season at Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. It was a terrific game, won 34-33 by the Vols thanks to Jeff Hall’s 27-yard FG at the final gun. Without that victory, the odds are slim that Tennessee finishes the season as BCS National Champions.

Look, I’m not saying history is going to repeat itself for the Vols in 2025… but I’m not not saying it either.

Hey, the 1998 Vols were also replacing a 5-star QB, and weren’t expected to be a powerhouse.

But before you go 16-0, you’ve gotta go 1-0.

Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 31, Syracuse 14

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If you were to write a script for the Vols’ worst possible experience, it would have looked a lot like what we saw on Saturday night. A 21-0 deficit within the opening 12 minutes. Injuries that cost them key players for most of the game, including DB Dylan Sampson, the SEC’s offensive player of the year. Tennessee’s defensive front, rock solid much of the season, couldn’t get any pressure on Ohio State QB Will Howard, and he picked them apart for 311 yards and 2 scores on 24-of-29 passes. He’s never had a game like that in an OSU uniform. At the same time, without Sampson demanding so much defensive attention, Tennessee’s offensive line couldn’t protect QB Nico Iamaleava. He was pressured constantly, sacked 4 times and forced to run for his life over and over again.

But as bad as that ending was in Columbus, the sky is not falling in Knoxville. Remember, this is a Tennessee program only 4 years removed from a 3-7 season, after which then-coach Jeremy Pruitt was fired for recruiting violations. Then 35 players transferred, by far the most in the nation. For lack of a better term, Tennessee football was an absolute mess.

But Josh Heupel’s Rocky Top rebuild has been remarkable. The Vols have won 37 games over the past 4 years, including 2 bowl game victories and a spot in this Playoff. While beating Georgia remains an unreached goal, UT has defeated rivals Alabama and Florida twice each over the past 3 seasons. Tennessee is relevant again, something that couldn’t have even been dreamed of during the darkest times of the Pruitt era.

But there’s a lot of work to be done in Knoxville to get to Ohio State’s level. For 3 weeks, Buckeyes players and coaches heard nothing but criticism from national pundits and especially their own fan base following a humiliating loss to rival Michigan. They set out to make a statement against the Vols, and did that almost perfectly. Tennessee made a statement as well. Even with the tremendous progress that has been made since the start of the 2021 season, that Playoff game proved that the Vols should not be considered a serious SEC and national title contender. Not yet, anyway.

Here are 3 steps that Heupel must take to ensure the 2025 season ends in a more positive manner for Tennessee.

1. Find playmakers in the transfer portal

Tennessee’s roster is more talented than it was a few years back, and while traditional recruiting has helped, the transfer portal can bring in immediate difference-makers. Heupel has been aggressive in the portal, with CB Kamal Hadden (Auburn), safety Brandon Turnage (Alabama) and WR Bru McCoy (Southern Cal) among his best gets. Last offseason, the Vols welcomed Oregon State CB Jermod McCoy, Tulane WR Chris Brazzell II and Alabama TE Miles Kitselman, each of which played a significant role this year.

The Vols need a major infusion of portal talent again this offseason, and nowhere is that more of a priority than at WR. Seniors Dont’e Thornton and McCoy will be gone, as will Chas Nimrod and Kaleb Webb, both of whom jumped into the portal. Brazzell and Squirrel White will be back, but otherwise that room is looking pretty barren. Maybe 4-star Mike Matthews makes the jump after a quiet freshman season.

Iamaleava must have been jealous looking across the field at Ohio Stadium and seeing the Buckeyes feature multiple NFL caliber receivers — granted Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka were HS recruits, but …. Heupel and OC Joey Halzle need to give Iamaleava similar tools to get this offense moving again. Those chunk plays of the Hendon Hooker/Jalin Hyatt era feels a lot longer ago than 2 years.

Securing more help in the secondary and on the soon to be depleted offensive line is also very important.

2. Figure out how to play on the road

Neyland Stadium is the Vols’ fortress. Long gone are the days of opposing fans taking over the building. Under Heupel, the Vols are 25-4 at home, and have only lost once in Knoxville over the past 3 seasons. The aforementioned 4 recent combined wins over Alabama and Florida were at Neyland. The pre-game atmosphere, the in-game fireworks, the all encompassing noise (even if the Crimson Tide Sports Network believes Tennessee blasts jet engine sounds) … Neyland is as tough a place to play as you’ll find in the sport.

But away from home, Tennessee has been mediocre under Heupel. They are 8-10 in true road games, including the Playoff dud at OSU. It isn’t just that they are getting beaten, but the manner in which those losses are happening. Those 10 losses were by an average of over 19 points per defeat.

Even at Ohio Stadium, which saw 20,000 … or 30,000 … or 250,000 Vols fans (depending on who you talk to) in the stands, Iamaleava admitted that the crowd noise from Buckeyes fans was a factor. Unless they start playing all games in empty stadiums or at Neyland, the Vols need to find some answers when they need to get on a plane.

3. More player development

I’m sure that you, good reader, will agree that to compete for trophies in major college football, your backups need to be nearly as good as your starters.

Tennessee’s Class of 2023 was ranked 10th nationally with the Class of 2024 placing 14th. Some of those players transferred, but those who remain have had 2 seasons to develop with most of this coaching staff. It’s time for those players who haven’t gotten reps outside of the Chattanooga or Kent State games to contribute.

Depth is a primary reason the defensive line blossomed into one of the top groups in the nation for much of the year. They need to see that level of depth in more position groups. If this coaching staff is to remain in place, player development must be more common.

The post Tennessee Football: Where do the Vols go from here? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Well, it didn’t quite work out that way. His pick for coach, Jeremy Pruitt, went 3-7 the following season during COVID. Making matters much worse, it turns out that Pruitt couldn’t follow NCAA rules. He and his staff were guilty of widespread recruiting violations, prompting Pruitt’s firing and Fulmer’s cough, cough retirement. It was yet another dark time in what was more than a decade of dysfunction on The Hill.

Ever since Lane Kiffin’s midnight run to Southern California in January 2010, Tennessee could rarely get anything right. The hiring of Derek Dooley was a de facto death penalty. Butch Jones seemed more concerned with PR than winning games. The cluster surrounding what would become known as “Schiano Sunday” will be remembered for eternity as the blueprint for how not to conduct a coaching search. Plus, Pruitt. Inexplicable losses and coaching decisions that defied reality defined those eras. Tennessee lost a game with 13 men on the field (2010, LSU) and lost a game when their opponent had way too many men on the field (2010, UNC). They gave up 63-yard pass plays in the final moments to lose at Florida in 2015 and 2017. And for the love of all that is holy, never kick a FG from the 1-yard line (2015, Oklahoma).

And there was much, much more. The demise of Bruce Pearl. The “vetting” of Donnie Tyndall. The Title IX lawsuit. I could go on and on.

Those were the bad times.

Fast forward to the present day, and things are very different around Tennessee athletics, and especially Josh Heupel‘s football program. The Vols have won 30 games over the past 3 years. They’ve beaten rivals Florida and Alabama each twice during that timespan, something that hadn’t happened since the early to mid-2000s. And the icing on the cake is the Vols earning a spot in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. They’ll play Ohio State in the opening round on Saturday night in Columbus.

The Buckeyes are favored by 7.5 points, via FanDuel Sportsbook. Regardless of whether the Vols beat the Buckeyes, it is obvious that Tennessee is no longer an afterthought. Even though they are playing in a newly bloated conference, going 10-2 with an SEC schedule is no joke. Tennessee fans, yearning for success, are all-in. The season ticket waiting list is now over 20,000. Donations to the athletics department and the university are greatly outperforming expectations. The future is indeed bright on Rocky Top.

And it isn’t just football success. The men’s basketball team made it to the Elite 8 a year ago and is currently ranked No. 1 in the country. The women’s basketball team is undefeated and back in the national rankings under new coach Kim Caldwell. The softball team is the 2-time defending SEC champion. And Tennessee’s baseball team swept the SEC Tournament and College World Series last season. In fact, every Tennessee team, all 20 of them, made it to the postseason during the 2023-2024 academic year. Eleven of those teams finished in the top 10 nationally. UT placed 3rd in the country in the Learfield Directors’ Cup standings. I could go on and on.

These are the good times.

During Tennessee’s glory days of the 1990s, Tennessee really had it rolling. Football won 3 SEC championships and the 1998 national title, baseball got to a College World Series and Lady Vols hoops won 4 national titles. But from top to bottom, UT athletics has never been in a stronger position than it is right now.

The reality is that the good times never last forever. When Fulmer’s football team went 45-5 from 1995-1999, it felt like they’d always be big winners. Heck, think about Nebraska 1980s and ’90s. Once the Cornhuskers started their fall in the early 2000s, they haven’t finished a season ranked higher than 14th nationally.

I’m sure that most Tennessee fans are enjoying this ride for all it’s worth.

And they hope football can keep the wheels moving for this season’s ride a few more weeks.

The post Dysfunction to delight: Tennessee fans enjoying wild ride back to prominence appeared first on Saturday Down South.

The Buckeyes are a 7.5-point favorite, via FanDuel Sportsbook.

There has been a lot of talk recently about the possible effect of cold weather on the southern Vols. Kickoff temperatures will be in the low 20s. But it isn’t like Knoxville is the Sahara. Temps in the low 30s in East Tennessee on Saturday night.

The colder temperatures could play into the Vols’ hands. Tennessee rushes for 232 yards per game, 9th-best nationally. SEC offensive player of the year Dylan Sampson gained 1,485 yards on the ground with 22 scores, both single-season program records. Sampson is the focal point of this offense. Against Power Conference opponents, the fewest carries he had was 19 against Georgia, while the fewest rushing yards was 92 against Oklahoma. Overall in those games, Sampson is averaging more than 24 carries and over 131 yards per game.

In other words, if Ohio State wants to stop Tennessee, it first must stop Sampson. Ohio State has contained most teams — only 2 opponents have topped 150 yards rushing. But Michigan committed to the run — 42 attempts for 172 yards — and upset the Buckeyes in the regular-season finale.

Tennessee’s game plan will be more diverse but expect a heavy dose of Sampson.

QB Nico Iamaleava has run the ball more effectively lately as well, averaging over 30 yards a game over the past 6 contests. Tennessee might not throw the ball as much as they typically do in this game, but if Iamaleava can hit 2 or 3 deep balls to a banged up receiving corps that looks to be healthier after 3 weeks off, that might be all it takes to put Tennessee into the quarterfinals against top-ranked Oregon.

Offensively the Vols are scoring 37.2 points per game and racking up 462.9 yards per game, 8th-best nationally in both metrics. However, this will be their toughest test. The Buckeyes are ranked No. 1 nationally in scoring defense, allowing fewer than 11 points per game.

Only Oregon managed to score more than 17 points against Ohio State; the Ducks nearly doubled that in a 32-31 win in Eugene.

The Buckeyes are also ranked 1st nationally in total defense, allowing a stingy 241.1 yards per game. And it’ll be strength on strength on the ground, as Ohio State is 7th-best in the country in giving up only 96.8 rushing yards per contest. Defensive end JT Tuimoloau has had a monster season, with 11.5 tackles for loss and 6 sacks, leading the Buckeyes in both categories.

Offensively, Ohio State puts up 35.5 points per game (tied for 17th in FBS) and 423.5 yards per game (36th in FBS). QB Will Howard has been good enough to win a bunch, completing 72% of his passes with 27 TD throws. He has 3 future NFL receivers to throw to in true freshman Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. That trio has combined for 158 catches, 2,260 yards and 23 scores. The 2-headed ground game monster of Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson has teamed up for 1,556 rushing yards and 14 TDs.

The Buckeyes have proven they can move the football, Michigan game not withstanding (more on that in a moment), but they haven’t seen a defense as good as Tennessee’s. Yes, Indiana (and their fraud schedule) is in that conversation, as is Penn State, but the Vols’ defensive line can take over this game. James Pearce Jr. and Joshua Josephs have been terrific on the outside, with players like Omari Thomas and Omarr Norman-Lott proving to be tough for offensive linemen to push back. The Vols have 9 players who have recorded at least 33 tackles this season, proof of their defensive depth.

The perceptions of both teams among their fan bases could not be more different. Tennessee has gone from SEC laughing stock to national championship contender in 4 years. Josh Heupel has led the Vols to 30 wins over the past 3 seasons, including 4 over rivals Alabama and Florida. This program has arrived. On the flip side, Ohio State fans are perplexed. The Buckeyes have won 43 games in the past 4 years, losing only 8 during that run. But 4 of those defeats were against rival Michigan. Unacceptable. This season the Wolverines went into Columbus as huge underdogs … and still beat Ohio State to knock the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten Championship Game. Coach Ryan Day hears the criticism and there is a legitimate — but wild — question about his future if OSU can’t advance in this Playoff.

For the past couple of weeks, Vols fans have been more than happy to snatch up the tickets of disgruntled Buckeyes fans. It’ll be very interesting to see just how much orange makes its way into The Horseshoe for Saturday night’s 8 pm kickoff. If recent road games against LSU, Oklahoma and (always) Vanderbilt are any indication, you’ll hear those Tennessee fans pretty easily on the ABC broadcast. A Tennessee fan even took to Wikipedia and changed the nickname of Ohio State’s stadium to “Neyland North.”

Tennessee’s road record under Josh Heupel is very average at 8-9. A victory on Saturday night would be his biggest win away from Neyland Stadium … actually, it would be the biggest win of his coaching career. It’ll be a tight one … but the Vols will survive, and go from the Ohio cold to the California sunshine.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 27, Ohio State 20

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The Fearless Prediction would like to wish you and yours the happiest of Thanksgivings. In between checks on the turkey fryer to make sure we don’t burn down the neighborhood, we have done our painstaking research on the biggest game of the year for Tennessee. On Saturday, the Vols make the short trip to Nashville to face in-state rival Vanderbilt. This game gets an 11 am CT kickoff, bringing back memories of every announcer being named Dave, what looked like only a 3-camera setup, and a 1st down and 10 line a couple of yards away from accuracy.

RIP, Jefferson Pilot Sports.

If you made a deal with Tennessee fans at the beginning of the season that if the Vols beat Vandy they’d make the Playoff, but a loss would knock them out, they would take you up on that offer 100 times out of 100. There are a few exceptions, but the Vols have dominated the Commodores pretty much since General Neyland became UT’s coach in 1926.

Most recently, the Vols have won the past 5 in the series (although the 2019 and 2020 wins were officially vacated due to recruiting violations under Jeremy Pruitt). Saturday, the Vols are favored to win by 11, via DraftKings Sportsbook.

But Vanderbilt isn’t a patsy anymore. Clark Lea has seen a breakthrough in this, his 4th season in charge. Wins over Alabama, Virginia Tech and Auburn opened a lot of eyes around the sport, as did a close game against Texas. Lately they’ve come back down to earth a bit after losses to South Carolina and LSU, but the Commodores are 6-5, heading to a bowl game, and relishing the opportunity to end the Vols’ Playoff dreams.

Vandy’s difference-maker is QB Diego Pavia, a New Mexico State transfer who has changed the program’s fortunes. Pavia, who by the way is suing the NCAA in an effort to get more eligibility, has thrown for over 2,000 yards with 16 TDs and only 3 INTs. But the biggest concern for the Vols’ defense is Pavia’s mobility. He leads the Vols with 671 yards rushing and 6 TDs. Math tells us that Pavia averages 61 rushing yards per game.

Overall this Vandy offense doesn’t scare opposing defenses very much. Ranked 77th nationally at 27 points per game and a woeful 116th in the FBS in total offense with 329.2 yards per game, the Vols will have opportunities to get off the field quickly … if they can keep Pavia contained.

Defensively the Commodores are led by a pair of sophomore LBs. Bryan Longwell leads the team in tackles with 70, including 7.5 tackles for loss. Randon Fontenette has 64 tackles and 3.5 sacks. As a unit, they give up 21.9 points per game.

Tennessee is coming off a 56-0 dismantling of UTEP on Senior Day at Neyland Stadium. It was a bounce back after a demoralizing 31-17 loss at Georgia, which for a time appeared to give their playoff hopes a kick in the pants. But thanks to some chaos (fraudulent Ole Miss, overrated Indiana, offensively challenged Alabama, etc.), the Vols ended last Saturday in prime position to make the playoffs.

Offensively the Vols are still among the best in the nation, tied for 12th in scoring (37.4 points per game) and 11th in total offense (456.1 points per game). RB Dylan Sampson has been spectacular, rushing for 1,307 yards and scoring a single season program record 22 TDs.

Sometimes it is difficult to remember that QB Nico Iamaleava is only a redshirt freshman. Iamaleava still has thrown for 2,255 yards with 15 TDs and 4 INTs, while completing 65% of his tosses. Tennessee is so close to hitting some of those big plays in the passing game, and this weekend would be a great time to do it.

Tennessee’s defense is championship caliber, and UT will need them to play that way. Sophomore LB Arian Carter is having a terrific season with a team-leading 58 tackles. Edge rusher James Pearce Jr. is going to make a lot of money in the NFL next year, and now leads the Vols with 11 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks.

It’s difficult to win on the road, especially in the SEC. With the exception of Texas, each of the top teams in the conference have had their issues away from home. Tennessee’s record under Josh Heupel in true road games is 7-9, and only 6-9 in SEC road games.

On paper this is a true road game, but over the decades we’ve seen the Nashville matchups in this rivalry basically be a neutral site. There will be a lot of orange in FirstBank Stadium, and they’ll be loud.

Vandy fans would love to throw another goalpost into the Cumberland River, but Tennessee is going to make sure those wearing black and gold stay in their seats. The Vols will continue their control of this series with an impressive performance.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 13

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Tennessee is rebounding from a 31-17 loss at Georgia. The defeat shouldn’t come as that much of a surprise. The Vols have now lost to their border rivals 8 consecutive times. The biggest shock coming out of Athens was how Tennessee’s defense played.

The Vols showed up in Athens as the last men standing. Tennessee was the only team in the FBS that hadn’t allowed 20 or more points in a  game. Against UGA, the Vols allowed QB Carson Beck to complete 63% of his passes for 347 yards and 2 TDs, while allowing him to rush for 32 yards and a score.

Beck hasn’t looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate often this season, but he did against the Vols. He had clean pockets, was never sacked and rarely pressured. He didn’t throw an INT, and the Dawgs didn’t turn it over once.

The Vols were probably due a shaky defensive performance … and it happened at a pretty bad moment in their season. Tennessee is still ranked in the top 10 nationally in total defense (9th at 289.7 yards per game) and scoring defense (8th at 14.4 points per game). But the sense of dominance has waned a bit.

Offensively, the Vols couldn’t have asked for a much better start against Georgia, scoring a TD and a FG on their first 2 possessions. But they only scored 7 more points the rest of the way, and were shut out in the 2nd half.

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava was good, but not great, completing 60% of his passes for 167 yards. He was more active than he typically is running the ball, with 12 carries for 40 yards. But some of that was by necessity. Iamaleava was sacked 5 times and pressured consistently after those opening 2 drives.

Maybe the biggest red flag was the lack of big plays in the passing game. Sure, RB Dylan Sampson was his same spectacular self, rushing for 101 yards and a TD. But through the air the Vols simply couldn’t figure out how to get a few chunk plays. A 17-yard connection between Iamaleava and Squirrel White was the Vols longest pass of the night. Deep threat Dont’e Thornton, Jr. didn’t catch a pass. Chris Brazzell II only caught 1 pass for 6 yards.

Nationally the numbers are still pretty good. They are ranked 12th in total offense (455.7 yards per game) and 18th in scoring offense (35.5 points per game).

But are those numbers going to impress a CFB Playoff committee looking for warts with a magnifying glass?

Which leads us to the UTEP game. Are the Miners a good football team? No my friends, they are not. While UTEP has won 2 of its past 4 games, they started the season 0-6. They are ranked 121st in scoring offense, averaging only 19.2 points per game.

Redshirt sophomore QB Skyler Locklear is coming off the best game of his career, throwing for 327 yards and 4 scores in the Miners’ double-overtime win over Kennesaw State. But 2001 Miami the Owls are not. They are 1-9 and recently fired their coach Brian Bohannon in this, their 1st season in the FBS.

Defensively, the Miners give up 29.7 points per game, 99th best in the FBS. Austin Peay transfer Kory Chapman is playing well, with 65 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, an INT and a fumble recovery.

But the Vols should be able to move at will Saturday afternoon. And considering how tight the margins are with regards to the Playoff, you might see Tennessee more aggressive than it has been for much of the season.

Remembering what we said at the start of this article. Style points matter. Tennessee is a 6-TD favorite against UTEP (via DraftKings Sportsbook) and need to put up a convincing victory over an inferior opponent.

Remember in 2022 when Josh Heupel got all sorts of grief from media and opposing coaches (hi Eli Drinkwitz) for throwing deep when the Vols were up multiple scores late in the 4th quarter? We might see that come back in style this weekend.

The Vols will bounce back from the Georgia loss with a convincing win, then spend the rest of their Saturday rooting against their CFB Playoff competition.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 52, UTEP 7

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The Dawgs are favored by 10.5 points, via DraftKings Sportsbook.

This rivalry dates back to 1899, but it has only been an annual matchup since the conference expanded in 1992. While the Vols had the upper hand in the 1990s, most recently it has been a series dominated by the Dawgs. Georgia has won the past 7 matchups, with none of those games closer than 14 points.

Is Tennessee ready to turn things around? Well, defensively this group has proven it can hang with any opponent. The Vols have played 9 games, and still haven’t allowed an opponent to reach 20 points.

The Vols give up only 271.6 yards and 12.6 points per game, 5th-best in the FBS in each category. They might only be in a tie for 29th in turnovers gained, but those seem to come at just the right time. James Pearce Jr.’s forced fumble and recovery late in the opening half against Florida was a season-defining moment. Joshua Josephs’ forced fumble in the third quarter against Kentucky turned around that game. Will Brooks’ INT against Alabama sealed Tennessee’s biggest win of the year.

If Tennessee is going to pull the upset in Athens, they’ll probably need to force a few turnovers. Georgia is willing to provide opponents a few breaks, coughing up the football 15 times already, 91st-worst in the nation.

Carson Beck has thrown 12 interceptions — more than any Georgia QB in the Kirby Smart era. He’s also thrown at least 1 interception in each of the past 4 games.

Offensively the Vols are probably always going to be compared to that historically potent 2022 team, which does a disservice to the teams that follow. This offense racks up 471.6 yards of offense per game (8th-best in FBS) and 37.6 points per game (15th-best in FBS). Not bad!

RB Dylan Sampson is the best player on a top-10 team that few people are talking about nationally when it comes to individual awards. He now has 1,129 rushing yards (125.4 yards per game) and 20 TDs — extending his program record and becoming just the 10th SEC player to hit 20 in a season. He’s been nothing short of spectacular, and the Vols will go as far as he can lead them. That said, his fumbles in the past 3 games are worrisome.

The status of QB Nico Iamaleava is a serious concern, and likely explains the higher-than-expected betting line. He was held out of the 2nd half of the Mississippi State game for what was described at the time as an upper body injury.

Upper body injury? What is this, hockey?

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said after the MSU game that he anticipated Iamaleava being ready to go against UGA. Subsequent reports had Iamaleava listed as being in concussion protocol. If Iamaleava can’t go, it would be up to backup Gaston Moore, who completed 5 of his 8 passes against Mississippi State. The Vols didn’t need him to do anything extra … but that won’t get the job done against Georgia.

UT’s special teams showed signs of life against Mississippi State, with the best bounce back coming from PK Max Gilbert. After missing 4-of-5 FGA’s against Alabama and Kentucky, Gilbert drilled each of his 4 FGAs against MSU, including a 51-yarder. Kickers are traditionally … different. Gilbert let out an emphatic fist punch following his FG at the end of the half against those Bulldogs. Seeing his confidence rise is a good sign.

Is Georgia a confident football team? Well, coming off a 28-10 drubbing at Ole Miss, it sure doesn’t look like it. UGA QB Carson Beck was supposed to be a Heisman Trophy favorite, but has looked very average this season. Beck has thrown 9 (of his 12) interceptions in the past 4 games.

Georgia is ranked 50th in total offense at 410.6 yards per game and is tied for 48th in scoring offense at 30.6 points per game. They have playmakers, including RB Trevor Etienne and WR Dillon Bell, but this UGA offense doesn’t strike fear into the hearts of opponents like they did in year’s past.

Defensively the Bulldogs are very good: 13th in the FBS in total defense, allowing 306.4 yards per game and tied for 16th nationally in scoring defense, giving up 18.4 points per game. LB CJ Allen and DB Malaki Starks are tied for the team lead at 49 tackles apiece. This will be a stern test for the Vols.

Playing at home squarely favors the Dawgs and will challenge UT’s communication on offense. Georgia hasn’t lost a game at Sanford Stadium since 2019, a streak of 29 straight victories. Due to quirks in the schedule, Georgia hasn’t played a home game in 5 weeks, while the Vols haven’t played a road game in 6 weeks. Athens will be loud on Saturday night.

The Vols remain a work in progress in hostile environments under Heupel. They are 7-8 in true road games since he took over in 2021.

It’s possible that Tennessee still makes the Playoff even if they lose in Athens, but this feels a lot like a play-in game for both teams. Entering this weekend’s action, 7 SEC teams have 2 or fewer losses and right now Tennessee’s strength of schedule isn’t as good as much of their conference competition.

The Vols understand that they control their own fate. Win out and they’ll make the Playoff field of 12, plus earn a spot in the SEC title game for the first time in 17 seasons. Georgia knows that with 3 losses, its chances of inclusion in the Playoff are slim.

The Vols’ defense has been lights out this season, and will make life difficult for the struggling Beck. But there’s just too much uncertainty with regards to Iamaleava to pick Tennessee here.

Fearless Prediction time …

Georgia 23, Tennessee 14

The post Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Georgia appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Johnny Majors (RIP) and Phillip Fulmer might have become mortal enemies, but they each shared that line time and time again as the Vols hit the end of the regular season. The idea being that you want to give the powers that be at the bowl games reason to choose Tennessee for a warm location in late December/early January.

Times have changed, but over the next 4 weeks, the Vols will try to show the College Football Playoff committee that they belong in the inaugural 12-team postseason tournament.

Tennessee’s first opportunity comes Saturday night against lowly Mississippi State. The Vols are favored by 23.5 points, via FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Vols are coming off another shaky offensive first half (but actually scored points this time). Still, they did enough to beat a pesky Kentucky team 28-18. Once again, UT defense stood tall, remaining the only FBS team yet to allow 20 points in a game this season.

There are only enough superlatives to go around to describe Vols RB Dylan Sampson, who now has 980 rushing yards and last week set a new Tennessee single season rushing TD record of 19, a record that stood for nearly a century.

Tennessee star Dylan Sampson is about to join the SEC's exclusive, single-season 20-rushing TD club. Sampson already has 19, a Tennessee single-season record. pic.twitter.com/FogvOU4Wsw

— Saturday Down South (@SatDownSouth) November 5, 2024

You’d think that would be enough to at least get his name mentioned for Heisman Trophy consideration … but this is Tennessee. If 1997 Peyton Manning can’t win it, and 2022 Hendon Hooker doesn’t even earn a plane ticket to JFK, it’s never happening.

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava continues to progress, completing 74% of his passes against Kentucky for nearly 300 yards. He had 2 sure TDs that were dropped, and another snuffed out by a jarring hit on TE Miles Kitselman. If Iamaleava keeps up the level of play we’ve seen the past 6 quarters, UT could be nearing that long awaited breakout offensive performance. There is absolutely another level this Tennessee offense can achieve, but they are still scoring 38.1 points per game, 12th-best nationally.

Defensively the Vols are not only dominating, but destructive. Another opposing QB was forced to leave the game early as UK’s Brock Vandagriff departed with a concussion. Tennessee is ranked 4th nationally in total defense (271.6 yards allowed per game) and 5th in scoring defense (12.4 points allowed per game).

Sophomore Arion Carter has made a huge jump this year, especially following the season ending injury to fellow LB Keenan Pili. Carter leads the team with 43 tackles. Edge rusher James Pearce, Jr. is coming on strong as well, and sits at the top of the Vols’ list with 6.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks.

If there is a serious concern with the Vols, it lies in their special teams. Max Gilbert has missed 5 of his past 6 FG attempts, including 3 against Kentucky. Tennessee is getting very little out of the punt return game, thanks in part to Squirrel White having to play through injury.

Issues on special teams haven’t cost the Vols a game yet … but if called upon at a key moment, will they deliver?

As for Mississippi State, it’s been a long season under first-year coach Jeff Lebby. The Bulldogs lost 7 straight games until beating UMass in Week 10, and were rarely competitive, falling by an average 17 points per contest. They’re still 0-5 in the SEC, losing each by at least 10 points.

They are ranked 62nd in the FBS in total offense (396.6 yards per game) and 64th in scoring offense (29.1 points per game). True freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. has shown flashes but is throwing for less than 190 yards per game and only completing 57% of his passes. RBs Davon Booth and Johnny Daniels have combined for 102 rushing yards per game. Kevin Coleman Jr. is the go-to receiver with 57 catches for 688 yards and 5 TDs.

Mississippi State’s defense is among the worst in the country, allowing 34.6 points and 461.8 yards per game. LB Stone Blanton (great name, BTW) leads the Bulldogs with 84 tackles.

It’s Homecoming Weekend on The Hill, as thousands of alumni descend on Knoxville and openly weep as to what’s become of “The Strip.” Many of the watering holes of their youth have been replaced by a seemingly never ending collection of apartments, hotels and condos, as the rapid growth of the University continues.

Those alumni will not have to worry about tears on the ride home. The Vols will do what a top-10 team should do and that’s easily dispatch an inferior opponent.

Preparations for Georgia can officially get underway around 10:45 pm on Saturday night.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 37, Mississippi State 13

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That said, this isn’t the time of year to rest. Loading up on cough drops and Ibuprofen will get us through the weeks to come.

This week we turn our attention to the artist formerly known as the “Battle for the Barrel,” with the Vols hosting Kentucky. This will be the 120th meeting between these rivals. They first played in 1893, a 56-0 win for the Wildcats.

Since then we have seen a World War, had the Great Depression, experienced another World War, landed a man on the Moon, and watched every season of Grey’s Anatomy. And during most of that time, the Vols have been dominant over their I-75 rivals, currently sporting an 84-26-9 record.

Even when Kentucky had probably its best football team, the 1950 squad coached by Bear Bryant, their only loss that season came to General Neyland and Tennessee.

Let’s fast forward to the present day. FanDuel Sportsbook favors Tennessee by 16.5 points.

Are there grumblings in Lexington? Yes my friends, there are grumblings in Lexington. Last week’s 24-10 drubbing at home against a less than mediocre Auburn team dropped Kentucky to 3-5. The Cats’ win at then 6th-ranked Ole Miss on Sept. 28 feels like a millennium ago.

UK coach Mark Stoops is making $9 million annually (plus incentives!) through the 2030 season. That’s a lot of money for a coach who is in serious danger of missing a bowl game.

On the flip side, Tennessee is riding high after wins over rivals Florida and Alabama. Those victories put the Vols in great position to make the inaugural 12-team CFB Playoff. They could probably lose once more, go 10-2, and still make the field.

Looking at Tennessee and Kentucky by the numbers … this doesn’t appear to be a fun night for the Wildcats. The Vols are ranked 3rd nationally in total defense, giving up only 259 yards per game. They are also the only team in the FBS to have held opponents under 20 points in each game this season.

Redshirt senior Will Brooks put together an Al Wilson-esque performance against Alabama, with 8 tackles and a game-clinching INT. James Pearce, Jr. has come on strong after a slow start to the season. I could throw many more names out here, but the story is the same. This Tennessee defense is championship caliber. If the 2022 Vols had this defense, they might have won the national title.

Kentucky’s defense isn’t near that level, but they are pretty good. The Cats are ranked 21st nationally in yards allowed and sport a solid front 7.

Offensively is where we really see the difference. Tennessee is racking up 473.6 yards per game, 8th-best in the FBS. Kentucky is 119th, with 307.9 yards per game. While the Vols are scoring nearly 40 points per game, Kentucky is barely reaching 19 points.

Vols QB Nico Iamaleava has struggled against tougher competition, but his clutch performance in the second half against Alabama should give him confidence heading into this game. The key to this Tennessee offense remains RB Dylan Sampson. He is No. 3 in the country in TDs with 17 and 13th with 838 rushing yards. Sampson is the UT’s MVP. He is well on his way to setting Tennessee’s all-time single season rushing record for TDs, needing only 1 more to tie Gene McEver’s mark of 18 set in 1929. He’s also only 626 yards shy of Travis Stephens’ 2001 single-season rushing record.

Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff has started all 8 of UKs games, but he has not been the answer at QB. He was benched in the second half of their loss to Auburn for Rutgers transfer Gavin Wimsatt. WR Dane Key catches nearly 5 passes a game and RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye averages close to 60 yards a game on the ground.

I know Tennessee looked lousy coming off a bye a few weeks back in their loss at Arkansas, but I seriously doubt we see a repeat performance on Saturday night. The Vols are rested and have their Playoff and conference fates in their hands.

Plus, just wait until Tennessee pipes in crowd noise!

Much like Tennessee always inexplicably struggles against Florida, Kentucky rarely looks good against Tennessee. Circle of life. There’s no reason to expect decades long trends to change course.

Fearless Prediction time…

Tennessee 32, Kentucky 9

The post Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Kentucky appeared first on Saturday Down South.

It has been such a weird series the past couple of decades that the Vols were absolutely due in winning a game that they probably didn’t deserve to win.

Two years ago, the Vols finally got the football gods on their side vs. their even more hated rivals, the Alabama Crimson Tide. That 52-49 classic snapped UT’s 15-year losing streak against the Tide and sparked a wild celebration that included goalposts being tossed in the Tennessee River.

Can the No. 11 Vols win back-to-back home games against the No. 7 Crimson Tide for the first time since 2006? We are about to find out.

Back on the morning of Saturday, Oct. 4, the Tennessee/Alabama game looked like it was going to be a massive matchup of 6-0 SEC foes. Then, the Tide lost at Vanderbilt and the Vols fell at Arkansas. A week later Alabama survived against an average South Carolina squad by only 2 points while Tennessee needed overtime to beat a mediocre Florida team.

The blooms are off the Crimson and Orange roses … but Saturday afternoon presents the opportunity for one of these Playoff contenders to be like Stella and get their groove back.

(Cricket sounds)

No Angela Bassett fans out there? Shame shame shame.

Tennessee’s offense looked unstoppable during the first 3 weeks of the season, but they slowed down a great deal as the schedule got tougher. They are still ranked 9th in total offense (484.5 yards per game) and scoring offense (42.2 points per game) in the FBS, but at times it’s a real struggle bus when it comes to moving the football.

In the Florida game, Nico Iamaleava took some shots downfield but rarely connected. The Vols’ longest completion was a mere 24 yards. They desperately need that aspect of this offense to improve. That means the offensive line must give Iamaleava more time, and receivers Bru McCoy and Dont’e Thornton, Jr. have to make some plays. Those guys have only caught 4 passes in the past 2 games.

Dylan Sampson continues to be the offensive MVP. He’s 2nd in the country with 15 rushing TDs and is averaging 116.8 yards per game; Sampson has helped make up for the ills of the passing attack.

The Vols’ defense has been nothing but spectacular through the opening half of the schedule. They wait for Alabama as the 2nd-ranked group in the country, allowing less than 250 yards per game. They are 4th in points allowed, giving up only 10.7 points per game. They haven’t surrendered more than 19 points in a game this season.

But that group was dealt a huge blow when LB Keenan Pili suffered another season-ending injury, this time a torn ACL in his right knee. Pili is a defensive captain, and was tied for the team lead with 29 tackles.

The Vols will sorely miss Pili’s presence and need sophomore Jeremiah Telander to step up in his absence.

As for Alabama, they are ranked 35th in total offense (442.3 yards per game) and 10th in scoring (41.7 points per game). Jalen Milroe has accounted for 23 TDs and over 300 yards of offense, while completing 73% of his passes. The Vols have not faced a QB as good or as versatile as Milroe so far this season. They also haven’t had to deal with a receiver the quality of freshman Ryan Williams. The 17-year-old leads the team in receptions (23), receiving yards (96 per game) and TD catches (6).

Jamarion Miller rushes for 60 yards per game. Alabama hasn’t asked him to do more and he’ll have a challenge getting going against a terrific Vols defensive front.

Alabama LB’s Jihaad Campbell and Deontae Lawson have combined for 101 tackles, placing them among the best in the SEC. But this is not your typical Alabama defense. They are ranked 55th nationally in total defense, and their secondary was exposed in the 2nd half of the Georgia game and then against Vanderbilt and South Carolina.

Remember all those big plays from Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt in the 2022 game? I’m not saying Iamaleava will be able to match that output, but the opportunity just might be there against those Alabama defensive backs.

It’s difficult to get a feel for this game. It would be a huge surprise to see the scoreboard light up as much as we did 2 years ago. Neither squad looks like an SEC title winning group at the moment. Sportsbooks such as FanDuel favor the Tide by just 2.5 points.

The Fearless Prediction doesn’t shy away from the challenge. That said, we do not suggest placing your kid’s 529 plan dollars on this prognostication.

Fearless Prediction time …

Alabama 24, Tennessee 21

The post Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Alabama appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Hopefully we get an easy game to pick this week.

(Looks at Vols schedule)

%&$#@!

Florida. Of course it is Florida. The Fearless Prediction has had its issues when it comes to figuring out the Tennessee/Florida game. But not as bad as the Vols trying to crack that code. How many times over the years has Tennessee gone into this game confident, yet left the field bloodied with a bruised ego and battered psyche?

Ever since James Wilhoit’s redemption kick to beat the Gators in 2004, the Vols have struggled mightily against Florida.

(Takes deep breath) …

There was the botched fake punt in 2005, the phantom personal foul in 2006, Cam Newton steam rolling Dennis Rogan in garbage time in 2007, the 2009 game remembered for Lane Kiffin saying the Vols would “sing Rocky Top all night long,” the 2014 loss in which Florida coach Will Muschamp gave an nWo style postgame taunt to Vols, the 2015 “4th-and-14,” the 63-yard bomb at the end of the 2017 game, and even last year’s loss in which Tennessee played one of its worst games of the Josh Heupel era.

The Fearless Prediction could go into more agonizing detail, but the point is that this game is typically a painful experience for UT. Starting in 2005, the Vols are a woeful 2-17 against Florida.

Yes, the Urban Meyer era teams with Tim Tebow were more talented than the Vols squads that Phillip Fulmer/Lane/Derek Dooley were rolling out, but quite often, UT has been on a level playing field with Florida or was better on paper.

But these games aren’t played on paper.

Heck, even Tennessee’s 38-28 win in 2016 took an improbable 2nd-half rally by the Vols, highlighted by Jauan Jennings’s juggling sideline catch, and UT’s 38-33 victory in 2022 needed to withstand a Florida Hail Mary attempt on the last play of the game.

For whatever reason, Tennessee never plays well against the Gators.

And following their upset loss at Arkansas, there is uncertainty in Big Orange Country. Even though the Vols are favored by 14.5 points, via FanDuel Sportsbook.

That was an unacceptable performance in Fayetteville, and yet another inexplicable road loss. Under Heupel, there have been 1 or 2 major stumbles while away from Neyland Stadium each season.

The good news for the Vols is that this game will be played in Knoxville. Neyland Stadium is once again one of the most intimidating places to play in college football, especially at night. The home crowd will help make life difficult for Gators QBs Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway. Tennessee is ranked 2nd in the nation in total defense, and that unit has only allowed opponents into the end zone 4 times this season.

But what in the name of Jim Bob Cooter is going on with the Tennessee offense?

Heupel slowed things down in the 2nd half of the Oklahoma game, and the Vols never really got on track against Arkansas. The Heisman Trophy for Vols QB Nico Iamaleava probably doesn’t need to be awarded just yet. He has looked more and more like a redshirt freshman these past 2 games, not nearly as assertive as the competition has gotten tougher.

Florida is giving up nearly 400 yards of offense per game, leaving them ranked 95th nationally in total defense. That potentially could help the Volunteers get their fast spaced groove back. In addition, the Vols are 5th in the nation in rushing offense, while the Gators are ranked 101st in rushing defense. Expect Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson to have another big outing.

Florida coach Billy Napier is still on the hot seat, but the Gators might not be as bad as we expected. They are now 3-2 after wins over Mississippi State and Central Florida.

Tennessee started 4-0, but after that Arkansas loss they might not be as good we thought.

That all said, and even with nearly 2 decades of shaky history, the Vols aren’t going to let the Gators walk out of Neyland Stadium with a win on Saturday night. This is a moment for Heupel and Co. to steady the ship.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 31, Florida 20

The post Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Florida appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Tennessee is 4-0 and firmly ranked in the top 5 nationally. Hard to have foreseen this day coming 4 years ago when Jeremy Pruitt was leading the Vols to a 3-7 COVID season and NCAA probation.

The Vols are not only surviving these days, but thriving with talented offensive skill players for QB Nico Iamaleava to distribute the football, and a ferocious defense that has not given UT fans any serious reason for worry through the first month of the season.

Let’s start by talking about that defense. Through 4 games, the Vols have allowed only 704 yards, fewest in the FBS. They are tied for 2nd nationally in giving up only 7 points per game. They also surrender only 50.8 yards rushing per game (2nd nationally) while averaging 7.8 tackles for loss per game (tied for 12th).

LBs Arion Carter and Keenan Pili lead the way with 15 and 14 tackles, respectively.  Tyre West already has 3.5 TFLs and 2 sacks to top the team in both categories.

This defense is deep, talented, and shows no signs of slowing down.

Tennessee’s offense leads the FBS in scoring with 54 points per game and is 3rd in total offense, racking up 565.8 yards per contest. RB Dylan Sampson averages 112.5 rushing yards per game, and has scored 10 TDs. Dont’e Thornton Jr. has turned into the coveted deep threat in the passing game, with 3 of his 7 catches going for scores, while averaging 35 yards per catch.

Iamaleava didn’t have his best game last time out against Oklahoma, as he was responsible for 2 turnovers while throwing for less than 200 yards. But Josh Heupel coached that game much the same way as Phillip Fulmer used to when the Vols were rolling in during the 1990s and 2000s.

Heupel took the air out of the football, and slowed his fast-paced offense to what felt like a crawl in the second half. He wasn’t going to put his redshirt freshman QB in a position in which he could lose the game, relying on a defense that was in control of the Sooners.

Don’t fret, Vols fans … there will be plenty of opportunities to show why Iamaleava is expected to be playing in the NFL in a few years.

As for those Razorbacks, they are 3-2 and coming off a neutral site loss to Texas A&M.

Offensively they look better this season thanks in part to the return of former head coach Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator. The Razorbacks are 13th in the country in total offense (495 yards per game) while scoring over 35 points per game.

Boise State transfer QB Taylen Green can make plays with his feet, rushing for over 66 yards per game. But if Arkansas is going to pull the upset (Tennessee is a 13.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook), he must improve on his woeful 54% completion rate. Redshirt senior WR Andrew Armstrong is Green’s top target, already connecting with him 29 times. RB Ja’Quinden Jackson, a Utah transfer redshirt senior, is averaging nearly 102 rushing yards per game.

Arkansas’ defense is fairly average, ranked 47th in total defense and 46th in scoring defense. They do have 4 players with at least 23 tackles, with LB Xavian Sorey, Jr. at the top of the list with 32 tackles and 4 TFLs.

This isn’t a marquee game on the Vols’ schedule. Vols fans are already looking toward the next 2 weeks, with Florida and Alabama coming to Knoxville. The anticipation for those 2 games is at a very high level if ticket prices on the secondary market are any indication.

But Tennessee can’t afford to look past Arkansas. Sam Pittman, a former Vols assistant, might need a win like this one to secure a 6th season.

The bye week came at a pretty good time for the Vols. LT Lance Heard, who was sorely missed at Oklahoma and part of the reason Iamaleava was under constant pressure, was not listed on Tennessee’s initial availability report. His potential return could be a big boost for the offense.

The Fearless Prediction is not going to talk himself out of what seems to be fairly obvious: The Vols have a better overall roster and a better coaching staff.  They’ll return home 5-0, setting themselves up for what could be a historic homestand.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 37, Arkansas 23

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We are about to find out if Tennessee is a true contender for an SEC championship and a berth in the expanded College Football Playoff.

Let’s get the obvious top storyline out of the way first.

Tennessee football coach Josh Heupel will be facing his alma mater. In 2000, Heupel was the Sooners’ QB, leading them to the BCS national championship while finishing 2nd in the Heisman Trophy race. He spent 11 years on the OU coaching staff, working his way up from grad assistant to QB coach and eventually to offensive coordinator.

But in 2014, after the Sooners went 8-5, Heupel was fired by his boss and his former coach, Bob Stoops. Heupel felt like the fall guy for what was ailing OU football at that time. This week Heupel has said all the right things, but he’s only human.

This homecoming, like the SEC itself, just means more.

In the past, Heupel has at times shown the willingness to run it up, most recently going surprise onside kick while up 30-0 against Kent State. If the opportunity arises, don’t expect Heupel to call off the dogs Saturday night.

Good thing for him, and for Tennessee fans, it looks like Heupel has built a team fully capable of winning big just about anywhere in the country.

Offensively the Vols are ranked No. 1 in the FBS in scoring offense (63.7 points per game) and No. 2 in total offense (639.3 yards per game). They are No. 3 in rushing yards at 336.3 yards per game while still throwing for over 300 yards per game.

Depth has been an issue with previous Tennessee teams. But now Heupel is in his 4th season in Knoxville, and the quality recruiting classes/transfer portal additions are really starting to pay off. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the passing game, with 11 Vols having at least 3 catches. Dont’e Thornton, Jr. and Chris Brazzell II lead the way, but Bru McCoy and Squirrel White are each capable of taking over a game.

Speaking of taking over a football game, RB Dylan Sampson looks capable of doing just that, averaging 119 rushing yards over the first 3 contests. He’s also tied for No. 1 nationally with 9 TDs.

You might have noticed that the Fearless Prediction has has yet to mention QB Nico Iamaleava. Not sure how many superlatives we can throw his way that haven’t already been mentioned, but he looks nothing like a redshirt freshman. Iamaleava is completing 72% of his passes with 6 TDs and 2 INTs. Including the bowl game, he is 4-0 as a starter … but has yet to be seriously challenged in a hostile environment. That’ll change on Saturday night, where Tennessee is favored by 6.5 points, via FanDuel.

In terms of Tennessee’s defense … good gracious. They are giving up only 160.7 yards per game (No. 2 nationally) and haven’t allowed an opponent to reach the end zone in over 16 quarters. Heck, their best player, edge rusher James Pearce, Jr. has been credited with only 0.5 tackles. Fun fact … Iamaleava has been credited with more tackles than Pearce! Iamaleava made a tackle following an INT.

All of these numbers will change the first time Tennessee is required to play their key guys for a full 60 minutes … something that might happen this weekend.

As for Oklahoma, the Sooners are 3-0, but not as impressive 3-0. A 16-12 win over Houston was followed by a 34-19 win over Tulane. Both games were tight in the 4th quarter. If OU is going to pull the upset, they’ll need sophomore QB Jackson Arnold to play at a level we haven’t seen from him. Arnold is completing 63% of his passes, but only throwing for 161 yards per game. He is leading the Sooners in rushing with 53 yards per game. Colleague Matt Hinton ranked Arnold No. 11 in his most recent SEC QB Rankings.

As a group, Oklahoma is only 108th in the country in total offense. Tennessee’s defensive line could have a big night against the Sooners’ offensive line, which has given up 9 sacks and 17 tackles for loss.

The Sooners are much more impressive on defense, ranked 23rd in scoring defense (11.3 points per game) and 38th in total defense (264.7 yards per game). LB Danny Stutsman leads the way with 33 tackles in the opening 3 games.

This game is a rematch of a 2015 classic, one of those truly special nights at Neyland Stadium. For 4 straight hours, Tennessee fans yelled themselves hoarse, a sustained noise perhaps only surpassed by the 2022 Alabama game. Baker Mayfield, who would win the Heisman Trophy a year later, led the Sooners to a 31-24 win in double OT.

The game is perhaps best remembered for Tennessee’s Butch Jones for sending out the field goal unit on 4th-and-goal from inside the 1-yard line … in the 1st quarter. Jones coached that game, for lack of a better word … scared. The moment was too big for him, and the results proved it.

I don’t see the same happening for Heupel. He and his team will not shy from the moment. It’ll be a rude welcome to the conference for the Sooners, but a happy homecoming for Heupel.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 35, Oklahoma 17

The post Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Oklahoma appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Last week Tennessee absolutely dismantled NC State 51-10. If you are doing the math (and I hope that you are keeping that abacus sharp), the Vols have outscored their first two opponents by a combined score of 120-13.

Is that good? Yeah, that’s good.

On Saturday night, No. 7 Tennessee plays their last tune-up before SEC play begins, so the Vols want to stay healthy, stay sharp, and continue sending a message that this team is a College Football Playoff contender.

Kent State comes to Neyland Stadium with an 0-2 record. No my friends, the Golden Flashes will not strike fear into the hearts of Vols fans following defeats to Pitt and (checks notes) St. Francis University? That 23-17 result was the first time SFU defeated an FBS opponent. Ever.

The only drama should be whether the Vols can cover the 49-point spread (via DraftKings).

The Golden Flashes don’t throw the football very much, averaging 191.5 yards per game. That’s 96th nationally. Not great. Devin Kargman completes 55% of his passes. Of course if they have a powerful rushing attack you can give away a little in the passing game.

Well, Kent State rushes for 54.5 yards per game, placing them 129th in the country. Yes, only 4 teams in the FBS rush the football less than the Golden Flashes.  When they do run, Ky Thomas or Curtis Douglas get those carries, while averaging a mere 3 yards per attempt.

Will Kent State’s defense present problems for Tennessee’s high powered offense? The Magic 8 ball says “Outlook Not So Good.”  The Golden Flashes are ranked 125th in total defense, allowing 486 yards per game. They are 115th in rushing defense and 120th in passing yards allowed.

This is shaping up to be a long night for the visitors, and a fun capper to Family Weekend at the University of Tennessee-Knoxville.

The season might only be 2 games old, but this Tennessee offense is looking an awful lot like that record-setting group from 2022. They are ranked 5th nationally in total offense at 589 yards per game. Those aren’t empty yards, either. The Vols are 2nd nationally in scoring average (a crisp 60 points per game).

Nico Iamaleava has given fans reason to believe that he will be the next great Tennessee QB. He’s been named SEC freshman of the week twice in as many weeks. Ten receivers already have caught at least 3 passes, with Bru McCoy leading the way with 7.

But junior running back Dylan Sampson is the breakout star of this offense. Sampson rushed 32 times for 256 yards combined against Chattanooga and NC State. He also has scored 5 TDs — tied for 3rd nationally — and has caught 3 passes in each game.

That all said … Iamaleava only has 3 college starts under his belt.  The sky is the limit for him and for this offense.

I mentioned that 2022 Tennessee team, which won 11 games and was perhaps one torn ACL from making the Playoff. The defense was decent that season, but not Playoff-worthy.

The 2024 Tennessee defense? Well, that might be the difference for the Vols. They are ranked 5th in total defense nationally, allowing only 185 yards per game. With the exception of a Mocs FG, Tennessee’s defense hasn’t allowed any points (NC State scored its TD on a pick-6). When you factor in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day, they’ve kept opponents out of the end zone for over 12 quarters.

The defensive line is legit and deep. Bryson Eason, Omari Thomas, Dominic Bailey, Omarr Norman-Lott, Tyre West, Elijah Simmons and Joshua Josephs each have at least 3 tackles. And the best of the bunch, James Pearce, Jr., a potential high first-round NFL draft pick, has 1 tackle this season. They only allow 56.5 rushing yards per game.

Linebacker play has been solid with Keenan Pili, Arion Carter, Jalen Smith and Jeremiah Telander. That front 7 can help make up for some of the issues in the secondary going forward.

Next week Tennessee plays at Oklahoma, and the Fearless Prediction will have a lot to say about that game when the time comes. So we need to get some rest to prepare for that prime-time affair in Norman.

The Vols will hope to rest their starters as soon as possible against the Golden Flashes. We expect them to be able to do that after the first half.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 56, Kent State 7

The post Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Kent State appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Editor’s note: Approximately 99.999% of the country picked Tennessee.

Bygones. With a new week begins a new challenge, and now the Fearless Prediction will tackle the Tennessee/NC State game in Charlotte. A matchup of nationally ranked teams to be played in an NFL stadium because neutral-site games are what we do now.

We used to be a proper, nonconference, on-campus society.

Tennessee was very impressive in its 69-3 victory over Chattanooga. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava was tremendous, completing 22-of-28 passes for 313 yards and 3 scores, and he only played the first half. Those 313 yards are the most any Tennessee QB has ever thrown for in a half.  The question Vols fans are asking this week isn’t whether Nico will win the Heisman Trophy, but how many?

His wide receiving crew of Dont’e Thornton Jr., Bru McCoy, Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell II and Squirrel White caught a combined 16 of Iamaleava’s tosses for 275 yards, with Thornton grabbing 2 of those TDs. That quartet has the potential to put up huge numbers this season. McCoy’s return is the most encouraging, as he showed no ill effects of the severe ankle injury which cost him the second half of the 2023 season.

Overall, Tennessee fans loved seeing Iamaleava use the middle of the field against the Mocs, a place Joe Milton rarely tested in 2023.

On the ground, Dylan Sampson looks primed and ready to roll, scoring 3 times and gaining 124 yards on only 12 carries.

Defensively, I’m not sure what we can take from a game against an FCS opponent, except that defensive lineman Tyre West appears prepared to take couple of steps forward. West had 2 tackles for loss, a sack and forced a fumble.

This was a near perfect start for the Volunteers. They certainly understand that most games will not be this effortless. And that upward climb gets steeper on Saturday night in Charlotte.

The Wolfpack are an 8-point underdog according DraftKings Sportsbook, a line that has increased in recent days. Maybe the Wolfpack’s performance gave reason for alarm. NC State beat Western Carolina 38-21, but they trailed entering the 4th quarter.

If State is going to upset Tennessee, they’ll need Coastal Carolina transfer QB Grayson McCall to play better than he did in his debut. McCall was good but not great, going 26-for-40 for 318 yards, 3 TDs and an INT versus the Catamounts.

McCall had a solid 4+ years in Conway, throwing for 88 TDs and over 10,000 yards. But he’s never had to play against a defense as good as what Tennessee will bring east. This will be his biggest test.

He will try to get the football to 2023 ACC Rookie of the Year KC Concepcion, who caught 9 passes for 121 yard and 3 TDs last week (after vowing to score 3 TDs before the game). On the ground, Duke transfer Jordan Waters is the top option. He had 2 scores and 123 rushing yards.

Defensively, this is a much different looking group thanks to transfers in the backfield. Earlier this week, DC Tony Gibson said what everyone already knew, that they haven’t seen anything like the speed of Tennessee’s offense. They’ll need to improve on the 6 missed tackles recorded against WCU.

Maybe the biggest concern for State lies with its offensive line facing Tennessee’s defensive line. James Pearce Jr., Omari Thomas, Elijah Simmons and West each didn’t play many snaps against the Mocs. Expect them to bring energy and physicality against the Wolfpack. The quicker they pressure McCall, the longer a night at will be for the Wolfpack.

Dave Doeren is now in this 12th season at State, but in November 2017 he met with then-Tennessee AD John Currie, and for a few hours it looked like he’d be the next Vols head coach. Doeren signed a contract extension with State instead and now is the program’s winningest coach.

Doeren has gone 82-58 with 4 9-win seasons. A victory over Tennessee would be one of the biggest of his coaching career. And it’s a moment State fans have been pining for, especially after both basketball programs made the Final Four, and the baseball team reached the College World Series. (Which is nice and all, but we know who actually won the CWS.)

But I don’t see that happening Doeren’s bunch breaking through Saturday night. Tennessee’s offense is too explosive, and NC State won’t be able to keep pace.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 38, NC State 24

The post Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. NC State appeared first on Saturday Down South.

From coaching carousels to conference realignment to NIL to the return of a video game to whatever Lee Corso is wearing on his head, college football, in all its absurdity, truly is the gift that keeps giving. It’s so good to have the greatest sport in the world back on our televisions.

It never left our hearts.

Before the Fearless Prediction looks at the Tennessee vs. Chattanooga game, we have some early thoughts on the Vols’ upcoming season.

My SDS college Connor O’Gara got out the crystal ball for the Vols, and he makes a lot of valid points while picking the Vols to finish 8-4 in the regular season.

(If you like to bet, FanDuel has placed the Vols’ over/under win total at 8.5. I’m a tad more optimistic. I have the Vols going 9-3.)

Here are a few more things Fearless Prediction is expecting over the next few months as well.

One of the worst moments of the 2023 season came in what was perhaps the best game Tennessee played. Wide receiver Bru McCoy dislocated his right ankle in the second quarter of the Vols’ 41-20 win over South Carolina. McCoy has been a fan favorite since transferring from Southern Cal before the 2022 season. His catch at the end of the Alabama game will be remembered for generations of Vols fans.

McCoy decided to use the extra COVID year of eligibility and return to UT for a 6th season of college football. The Fearless Prediction admires this dedication to higher education and sticking around college as long as possible.

Squirrel White and Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell II might have more big play possibilities from the Tennessee wide receiver room, but McCoy will be counted on to make a lot of the tougher catches over the middle. His physical play will be a difference-maker, and a safety valve for new QB Nico Iamaleava.

On defense, edge rusher James Pearce Jr. is getting tons of hype and rightfully so because he could end up being the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. (Tennessee hasn’t had a No. 1 overall pick since you-know-who. But I think the most intriguing player on this Tennessee defense is LB Keenan Pili, who hasn’t even played a full football game yet in the Orange and White.

A grad transfer from BYU, Pili was injured in the 2023 opener, later applied for an extension of eligibility waiver, and got it from the NCAA. Now Pili has a 7th year of college football ahead of him. Remember, he was a recruit in the Class of 2016.

Pili’s teammates probably ask him if he voted for Reagan or Carter.

In all seriousness, Pili needs to be one Tennessee’s best defensive players for the Vols to succeed, and the Fearless Prediction expects him to put together a solid amateur swan song.

In terms of the schedule, there’s so much talk surrounding the SEC slate. A trip to new conference foe Oklahoma. A meeting with Nick Saban-less Alabama at Neyland for the first time since the Dixieland Delight game 2 years ago. A chance to snap a 7-game losing streak at Georgia.

But the Fearless Prediction would like to make sure that people aren’t sleeping on what could potentially be a tricky early-season neutral site game against NC State in Charlotte. The Wolfpack will be led by Coastal Carolina transfer QB Grayson McCall, and if he has figured out that new offense, what is expected to be a relatively stress-free affair could be a long night for UT.

This also gives the Vols a chance to play against Dave Doeren, who for about 12 hours seemed destined to be the next Tennessee head coach during the chaotic “Schiano Sunday” coaching search of 2017.

Now, for the Week 1 game at hand.

The Vols are keeping that appearance fee in state as Chattanooga makes the easy trip up I-75. The Vols are 40-2-2 against the Mocs, most recently a 45-0 victory in 2019. Of course, that was during the Jeremy Pruitt era, so technically the victory doesn’t even exist following NCAA sanctions. (Fearless Prediction was at that contest, so it was real to me, darn it!)

The overreactions from the first game of the season are always a delight. If Nico accounts for 4 TDs, start the Heisman campaign! If he has an interception, they better get Gaston Moore and Jake Merklinger ready!

The Fearless Prediction isn’t especially concerned either way, as we aren’t going to make any rash generalizations after those 60 minutes. Not our style.

Just remember to drink lots of water because Neyland might feel like the surface of the sun for that 12:45pm kickoff.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 45, Chattanooga 0

The post Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Chattanooga (and a season prediction, too) appeared first on Saturday Down South.

The Tennessee Volunteers came up with perhaps their best performance of the season in an 82-75 victory over Creighton in the Sweet 16. For only the 2nd time in program history, the Vols will play in the Elite 8.

UT only turned the ball over 4 times Friday night. They forced 9 turnovers and scored 10 points off those giveaways. Tennessee collected 12 offensive rebounds. They had 17 points off fast-breaks, while allowing only 2 fast-break points.

Dalton Knecht did Dalton Knecht things, scoring a team high 24 points including a couple of clutch treys in the 2nd half when Creighton went on a run and pulled to within 3 points. Josiah-Jordan James had 17 points, including 3 triples and went 6-for-6 from the line.

Tennessee got the job done without one of their best players; 5th-year senior guard Santiago Vescovi missed the Creighton game with the flu, which forced UT coach Rick Barnes to use his bench a lot more than he wanted. In the first half, Barnes stole some key minutes with little used JP Estrella, Freddie Dilione V and Cameron Carr.

It was a masterclass from Barnes, who can certainly make his case as the greatest coach in the history of Tennessee’s men’s basketball program. During his Tennessee tenure, the Vols have 2 SEC championships, 1 SEC Tournament title, advanced to the Sweet 16 3 times and Elite 8 once.

With a win on Sunday, that argument will be over.

But as big of a challenge of the Bluejays were, there is a bigger challenge ahead in the Purdue Boilermakers, who are a 3.5-point favorite, via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Zach Edey, a 7-4 All-American, has been a problem for everyone. He’s averaging 24.6 points and 12.1 rebounds per game. The probable back-to-back National Player of the Year has been his typically dominant self during this NCAA Tournament, averaging 26.7 points, 16.3 rebounds and 2 blocks per game in wins over Grambling, Utah State and Gonzaga.

The elephant in the room, of course, is how officials treat Edey — and how they allow opponents to defend him.

He hasn’t fouled out of a game this season, and only on 4 occasions did he even reach 4 fouls. In fact, he’s fouled out only once in his 4 years at Purdue. At the same time, Edey is often the beneficiary of the whistle, as he’s averaging over 11 free throw attempts per game this season. Jonas Aidoo, Tobe Awaka and Jahmai Mashack will each get their chances to keep him from dominating the glass.

But as good as Edey is, the Boilermakers have quality supporting pieces around him. Point guard Braden Smith had 14 points, 15 assists and 8 rebounds in Purdue’s win over Gonzaga. Lance Smith and Fletcher Moyer reach scored in double digits in that Sweet 16 game as well. The Boilermakers shot 57% from the field.

As good as Tennessee was against Creighton, they’ll have to be better against Purdue to get to their first Final Four.

This is a rematch of a game that took place in Maui in November; Purdue won 71-67. But I don’t know how much we can take from that game. First, it was a free-throw contest, with both teams combining for 78 attempts. It’s hard to imagine 52 fouls being called in the rematch.

Related: Tennessee residents, if you are interested in wagering on the NCAA Tournament, here are some Tennessee betting apps to dowl0ad.

Also in that game, Tennessee point guard Zakai Zeigler came off the bench and played 28 minutes. Barnes was still easing him back into the lineup after he suffered a torn ACL the previous March. Zeigler is 100% and played all 40 minutes against Texas and Creighton.

Is there history between these programs and these athletics departments? Yes, there is. Back in 2019, in the Sweet 16, Purdue beat Tennessee 99-94 in OT. That game is best remembered for a controversial call at the end of regulation, when Vols guard Lamonte Turned fouled Carsen Edwards on a 3-point attempt with UT leading by 2 points. Edwards made 2 of the 3 free throws, and Purdue won in the extra session. Purdue also could have been called for 5 seconds on the inbounds pass leading up to Edwards’ shot. It’s a loss that haunts Tennessee to this day.

There’s also football! In the 2021 Music City Bowl, UT RB Jaylen Wright was ruled not to have crossed the goal line on 4th down in OT, despite his knee not being down nor the play being whistled dead by the time got in the end zone. Purdue went on to win 48-45.

Yes, there are demons. If the Vols are going to make their first Final Four, they’ve got to slay them all.

Which leads us to this Elite 8 game.

The Fearless Prediction picked Creighton to beat Tennessee, was proven incorrect, and now finds itself in a precarious situation. Pick Purdue and earn the wrath of #VolTwitter before perhaps the most important game in the history of the program? Or pick Tennessee, jumping back on the bandwagon after not trusting the Vols to beat Creighton?

(Long pause)

(Longer pause)

Folks, like Michael Scott, the Fearless Prediction is not superstitious … but it is a little ‘stitious.

Fearless Prediction time …

Purdue 67, Tennessee 65

The post Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Purdue in Elite 8 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Last week we told you that Tennessee would knock off Saint Peter’s and then defeat Texas in the 2nd round. Folks, that is obviously something no one but the Fearless Prediction could have seen coming.

Now, the Fearless Prediction gets the chance to look into the future and pick the Tennessee/Creighton winner in the Sweet 16. FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Vols as a 2.5-point favorite.

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The 2nd-seeded Vols beat Texas 62-58 in a physical, grind it out matchup in the Round of 32. Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht, the SEC Player of the Year, led all scorers with 18 points but only shot 5-of-18 from the field. Tennessee made a woeful 3-of-25 3-point attempts in that game, shooting 33.8% from the field overall. But the Vols were clutch from the line, converting of 15-of-18 attempts.

They also collected 14 offensive rebounds and forced 17 turnovers. Defense and board play can carry teams on off nights, and that hard work pushed Tennessee into the Sweet 16 for the second straight season.

As for 3rd-seed Creighton, the Bluejays got an even bigger scare in the 2nd-round from Oregon. Creighton trailed in the final seconds of regulation but finally put the Ducks away in double OT.

This is a Creighton team that is used to winning in March. It’s their 3rd trip to the Sweet 16 in the past 4 years. Last year they missed out on the Final Four by a basket in their Elite Eight loss to San Diego State.

The Bluejays have a 4 excellent players who have started all 34 games this season. Senior shooting guard Baylor Scheierman is their best player, averaging 18,3 points per game and 9.1 rebounds per game, tops on the team in both categories. Junior point guard Trey Alexander puts up 17.7 points per game and leads the team with 4.7 assists per contest.

Senior center Ryan Kalkbrenner is 7-1 and a serious problem down low. He scores 17.1 points per game and is one of the top shot-blockers in the country with 105 this season, good enough for 2nd nationally. Senior guard Steven Ashworth rounds out Creighton’s fantastic 4 with 11 points per game and 4.2 assists per game.

This is an experienced group, but not especially deep. Only 6 players average at least 21 minutes per game, and no one else averages more than 9 minutes a game. The Bluejays certainly appreciate the extra day of rest following that double OT affair in round 2.

Like Creighton, Tennessee relies on its veterans. Junior forward Jonas Aidoo, and 5th-year senior guards Knecht, Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James started all 34 games this season. Junior guard Zakai Zeigler started 28 games, after he was eased back into the lineup at the start of the season following a torn ACL. The Vols are a little deeper, with guards Jordan Gainey, Jahmai Mashack and forward Tobe Awaka each playing at least 12 minutes a game.

Tennessee likely won’t be able to bully the Bluejays inside as they were able to do against Texas. Awaka might be called upon to play a big role in this game. In only 11 minutes against the Longhorns, Awaka had 10 points and 5 rebounds, with 4 of those boards on the offensive glass.

There’s a common opponent in Alabama, the only other SEC team still alive in the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee beat the Tide in both meetings this season, and the Bluejays won their matchup against Alabama in Omaha.

Tennessee sportsbooks have established the Vols as a slight favorite, expecting perhaps the closest game of the Sweet 16. The numbers back up that prognostication. Tennessee allows 67 points per game (46th in nation) while scoring 79.1 points per game (50th). Creighton allows 69.5 points per game (97th) while scoring 80.6 points per game. On paper, Tennessee is a bit better on defense, with Creighton having a small edge on offense.

Both Tennessee and Creighton are desperate to advance to the Final Four — a place neither program has been.

These teams could play 10 times and probably split those meetings. But the beauty (and horror) of this tournament is that every game is a one shot deal.

Before the tournament, when looking down the line the Fearless Prediction expected to see this matchup. We thought the potential result would go to Creighton … and we aren’t changing our minds.

Fearless Prediction time …

Creighton 68, Tennessee 65

The post Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Creighton in the Sweet 16 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

A couple of weeks ago, all was right in Big Orange Country. The Vols went on a terrific late season run, beating Auburn, Alabama and South Carolina in consecutive games to capture their first outright SEC regular-season title since 2008. A top seed in the NCAA Tournament looked like a lock, something the Vols had never achieved in program history.

But since then, the Vols lost to Kentucky on Senior Day at the artist formerly known as Thompson-Boling Arena. Then, they got destroyed by Mississippi State in their opening game at the SEC Tournament, in what was UT’s worst performance of the season.

And now, with the NCAA Tournament set to begin, which Tennessee team will we see … the one that looked at times this season like a national championship contender? Or the one that was unmotivated after achieving their conference title goals?

FanDuel puts Tennessee’s odds at +340 to win the Midwest Region and advance to the Final Four. Tempted to go all-in? The Fearless Prediction is here to help.

Tennessee opens play Thursday night against the darlings of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, 15-seed Saint Peter’s. You remember the spunky Peacocks, upsetting Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue on their way to the Elite 8?

Well, this Saint Peter’s squad doesn’t look a whole lot like the team from 2 years ago. Latrell Reid, the MAAC Defensive Player of the Year, is the only guy still on the roster who got playing time in 2022. Head coach Shaheen Holloway left after that magical run and is now at Seton Hall.

This team doesn’t want to play up-tempo. They want to bleed the clock and make Tennessee play a half-court, grind it out contest. The Peacocks are ranked 12th in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 63.4 points per game, well below the Vols’ offensive output of 79.5 points per game.

Saint Peter’s go to player is 6-6 sophomore forward Corey Washington, who averages 16.5 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. He had 24 points against Fairfield in the MAAC Tournament title game, including 20 in the second half.

Want to bet the over/under? SDS has Big Orange Nation covered with the best Tennessee sports betting apps!

But there just isn’t enough offensive firepower for the Peacocks to pull off another upset, and the Vols will advance to the second round where they’ll play … 7-seed Texas.

Yes, First Four winner Colorado State could also beat the Longhorns, but the UT vs. UT matchup is just too perfect. The NCAA script writers are going the NFL script writers a run for their money.

The history is there. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes won 402 games in 17 years with the Longhorns and led them to the 2003 Final Four. Texas hired Barnes after the 2015 season, and only a few days later he was hired by former Tennessee AD Dave Hart. It would turn out to be Hart’s biggest accomplishment during his controversial tenure in Knoxville.

Texas has scorers, with 4 players averaging over 10 points per game. But they also allow near 70 points per game as a team, putting them 105th in the nation. Three-point defense is also a concern for the Longhorns. Opponents make 34.9% of their attempts behind the arc. That should bode well for Tennessee’s SEC Player of the Year, Dalton Knecht.

Barnes has faced Texas twice while at Tennessee, a loss in Austin in 2022 was followed by a win in Knoxville in 2023. I think the rubber match goes to Barnes as well, putting the Vols in the Sweet 16 for what will be the 10th time in program history.

Tennessee’s first 2 tournament games are a relatively short drive away in Charlotte, less than 4 hours from Knoxville. The Sweet 16/Elite 8 will be played further away in Detroit, but you still can count on there being a lot of orange in Little Caesars Arena.

The Vols could end up facing South Carolina for a third time, but the Fearless Prediction expects 3-seed Creighton to be their opponent in the Sweet 16.

The Bluejays are really good. They lost to San Diego State by a single point in the Elite 8 a year ago. They finished 3rd in the Big East this season, went 23-9, and even upset top overall seed UConn by 19 points a month ago. Senior guard Baylor Scheierman leads Creighton in scoring (18.4 points per game) and rebounding (9 boards per game). Center Ryan Kalkbrenner is 7-1, averages 17 points per game, and will make life difficult for the Vols inside.

I don’t like that potential Creighton matchup for Tennessee.

The elusive Final Four will have to wait at least one more season.

Fearless Prediction time …

The Vols will get to the Sweet 16 for the 3rd time under Barnes, but they’ll fall to Creighton.

The post Fearless Prediction: How far will Tennessee go in the NCAA Tournament? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

I throw my resume out there so you can read that I have credibility when it comes to being Tennessee football knowledgeable. So, you can believe me when I tell you that Vols QB Nico Iamaleava is going to win the next 4 Heisman Trophies.

Well, maybe 3 if he goes to the NFL after the 2026 season. But come on … if you win 3, you’d have to come back for a 4th, right?

Am I kidding? Of course. But #VolTwitter knows what’s up. Iamaleava just made his first career college start against one of the best defenses in college football Monday and looked … pretty darn good in leading Tennessee to a 35-0 blowout against Iowa in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl.

Iamaleava completed 12-of-19 passes for 151 yards against the Hawkeyes. There was also a 4th quarter TD pass of 18 yards to McCallan Castles. It looked like he would have had a long TD pass in the 3rd quarter as well, but Ramel Keyton stopped running for some reason.

Tennessee was without its top 2 RBs for this game, with Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small both opting out of the postseason. Dylan Sampson and Cam Seldon took their places and gave us a look at the 2024 rushing attack. If this game was any indication there’s no reason to worry, UT fans. Sampson and Seldon combined for 188 yards on the ground on 33 carries against an Iowa team that only allowed 102.5 rushing yards per game this year.

Another solid sign for the future of the Tennessee run game? Iamaleava. He showed the willingness and ability to run the football, with 15 carries for 27 yards. That might not sound like a lot, but most important, he scored 3 rushing TDs. This was a wrinkle we saw a lot with Josh Dobbs and again with Hendon Hooker, and the UT offenses were flying high during those years. Like Dobbs and Hooker, Iamaleava is more inclined than some other QBs to run, which will make this Tennessee offense even more dangerous in the years to come.

Now, the flip side to that coin is that Iamaleava is taking too many hits, which is not ideal. But let’s keep things positive, shall we?

“I’ve always had confidence in this team,” Iamaleava told ESPN after the bowl game in which he was named MVP. “I’m glad we got the win, got our seniors a ring. Since I have gotten here, I have gotten nothing but love from the coaching staff. This is the start of our 2024 year, and I think we have a good mindset.”

“I just think as a young player, the moment, nothing is too big for him,” said Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel. “He’s very in control and does a great job. He related to all the guys, every position, every unit… he’s a dynamic leader already as a young guy. Really pleased with his poise and playmaking ability today.”

The good news for Tennessee is that the offense looks to be in terrific hands for the next few years. There is enough talent already on the roster for the Vols to once again be a top 20 group nationally. Plus, more 4-star and 5-star skill players will want to come to Tennessee to play with Iamaleava in the future.

The bad news (and this is the part that will give coaches even more gray hairs) is that for the next 8 months, the Nico Iamaleava hype train is going to do nothing but gain speed. Playoff or bust.

Yes, basketball season is here (the Vols are a Final Four contender) and baseball season is getting closer (the Vols should make another run at Omaha), but that only takes up so much bandwidth in the minds and hearts of Vols fans.

Buckle up. The Nico Iamaleava era has arrived.

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The Fearless Prediction has spent the past few weeks relaxing, getting some much needed rest, and preparing to finish the 2023 season in winning fashion with the Vols facing Iowa in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl.

There were some high notes for Tennessee this season, like getting revenge on a memorable night against South Carolina. There were also some bad times, such as their blowout loss at Mizzou. But even with the inconsistency, UT can end the year with 9 wins, something they have only accomplished once since 2016 (the Vols won 11 games in 2022).

If the Vols are going to get that 9th victory, it’ll be with a new QB at the helm. Nico Iamaleava gets his much-anticipated first college start on Monday.

“I have always been a next-play type guy, so I know I’m going to go out there and try not to make any mistakes, but if it comes, it comes,” Iamaleava told reporters this week. “I have to have a next play mentality and get my guys ready for that.”

Vols coach Josh Heupel, well aware of the runaway hype surrounding Iamaleava’s starting debut, all but said don’t expect to see Peyton Manning.

“Listen, this game is never perfect, and we don’t expect Nico to play perfect,” Heupel said. “We expect him to reset and give our playmakers an opportunity to make plays.”

Iamaleava is playing because 6th-year QB Joe Milton opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. RBs Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small won’t play, either, after combining for 1488 rushing yards this season. That opens the door for Dylan Sampson and Cameron Seldon. Iamaleava does get to work behind an offensive line which allowed only 18 sacks this season.

There will also be multiple UT absences on defense. DL Tyler Baron and DB Tamarion McDonald have announced that they are transferring to Ole Miss. DB Doneiko Slaughter is going to Arkansas and DB Warren Burrell is heading to Georgia Tech.

At this rate, one lucky Tennessee fan might get plucked out of the crowd to play in the secondary.

As for Iowa, this game presents a chance for the Hawkeyes to finish with 11 victories for the 4th time in program history. The fact that they’ve won this many games is a testament to their defense, which is ranked 5th nationally in yards allowed and 4th in points given up per game.

Iowa’s offense is bad. Really bad. Like, historically bad. So bad that dad had to fire son. Seriously. Mercifully, this will be the last game at Iowa for Brian Ferentz as offensive coordinator, proof that nepotism laws are in place for good reason. The Hawkeyes enter this bowl game ranked dead last nationally in total offense, averaging only 239.3 yards per game. They only score 16.6 points per game, 127th in the country. Iowa cracked the 20 point plateau once in their final 7 contests.

Bowl games are getting more and more difficult to predict these days. Which team is motivated? How many starters are opting out? Iowa would seem to have the edge there, with a lack of players opting out and the chance to prove themselves against an SEC team.

Even with those factors to consider, I look at Iowa offensively and wonder how they are going to score against Tennessee’s defense. Yes, the reverse can be true as well, especially with a young QB in his first start.

But Iowa hasn’t proven that they can move the football against a decent defense, much less against one ranked in the top 40, like the Vols. Their starting QB, Deacon Hill, has 5 fumbles and 6 INTs, while completing less than 50% of his passes.

If Iowa can get in the end zone with their defense or special teams, they have a chance to win. Otherwise UT should have enough to get the victory, even with their depleted roster.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 17, Iowa 10

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Iamaleava was a coveted 5-star QB wanted by everybody, including the SEC’s elite in Georgia and Alabama. But he chose Tennessee. (Of course, how much of a factor that reported millions of dollars in NIL cash played is another discussion entirely.)

Ever since, Vols fans have been waiting for the day when Iamaleava takes the reins of Heupel’s offense. Tennessee has produced so many high quality QBs over the years, notably Heath Shuler, Peyton Manning and Josh Dobbs. Expectations were sky high that Iamaleava would be remembered just as fondly when his Tennessee career was over — and he had yet to even arrive in Knoxville.

Iamaleava spent his freshman season as 6th-year QB Joe Milton’s backup. The Vols finished the regular season 8-4, and Milton put up some good numbers. But none of that stopped UT fans from wanting to see what Iamaleava could do.

Iamaleava play in a mop-up role in 4 games, completing 16-of-26 passes for 163 yards and a score. There were flashes of brilliance, yet way too small a sample size for the player expected to be the next great Tennessee QB.

Well, that’s about to change. Milton opted out of the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft.

It’s Nico Time.

The future of Tennessee’s football program will be on full display come New Year’s Day, when Iamaleava makes his first career start against Iowa.

And the takes … oh the hot takes are coming, my friends.

Let’s never forget that the backup QB is typically the most popular player on every team. It’s been that way for decades. Heck, I’m old enough to remember a lot of Vols fans who wanted Branndon Stewart to start over Manning in 1994.

In reality, when a backup becomes the starter, his popularity tumbles if the victories don’t follow, but for now, Iamaleava has a high Q rating.

Iamaleava has played in garbage time against Virginia, Texas-San Antonio, UConn and Vanderbilt. Those are not exactly pressure filled situations against great opponents. This time the competition will be much tougher against Iowa, which reached the Big Ten Championship.

While the Hawkeyes’ offense has struggled (hey, it’s the holidays and I’m being nice), the defense is one of the best in the nation. They are ranked 5th in the FBS in total defense, allowing less than 275 yards of offense. The Hawkeyes are also ranked 4th in scoring defense, giving up only 13.2 points per game. Michigan (26) and Penn State (31) are the only teams that topped 16 points against the Hawkeyes.

Making matters more difficult, Iamaleava won’t have the Vols’ top 2 RBs to help him move this offense. Jaylen Wright is heading to the NFL Draft and Jabari Small opted out. Tennessee’s offense we get to see in Orlando probably will look a lot different come September, but that’s not going to stop a massive overreaction from a lot of fans about Iamaleava.

If the Vols look good on offense, Iamaleava is going to win multiple Heisman Trophies and lead the Vols to the SEC championship and national Playoff berths.

If the Vols struggle, he’s a bust and UT will need to give incoming 4-star freshman Jake Merklinger a real shot at the starting job come next fall.

I’m joking here … but not really. Take a tour of #VolTwitter on Monday afternoon and soak in the comments.

Personally, I’m fired up to see what Iamaleava does against Iowa. We’ve heard about his ability for nearly 2 years, but this will be our first chance to see him in action from the jump, unleashed, big goals to go.

The 2024 season basically begins now for the Vols.

And maybe an even brighter future, too.

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Let’s take a closer look at UT with our final stock report of the regular season.

Most improved: Elijah Herring

As a true freshman, Tennessee LB Elijah Herring played in all 13 games, made 11 tackles, including 2 sacks. Herring was expected to get more playing time as a sophomore, and when BYU transfer Keenan Pili was injured early in the season, that became a necessity.

Herring exceeded all expectations. He finished the regular season with a team leading 78 tackles. In 2024, Herring will be called on even more for this Tennessee defense.

Biggest surprise: Lack of big pass plays

The Vols lost QB Hendon Hooker and WRs Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman to the NFL Draft, but there was still reason for optimism with this Tennessee offense.

They’d have a 6th-year QB in Joe Milton, plus speedsters Squirrel White and Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton, with experienced pass catchers Bru McCoy and Ramel Keyton.

But the big chunk plays we saw so often for the Vols in 2022 simply weren’t present very much this season. Place the blame wherever you’d like, but not being able to pick up a lot of yards in 1 chunk kept this offense in check.

Best win: South Carolina

Tennessee fans certainly remembered what happened on Nov. 19, 2022. The Vols made the trip to Columbia and returned licking their wounds after a 63-38 loss to South Carolina. That loss knocked UT out of the Playoff race. They also lost QB Hendon Hooker to a torn ACL.

The rematch on Sept. 30 at Neyland Stadium was highly anticipated, and the Vols put together their best 60 minutes of the season with a 41-20 destruction of the Gamecocks.

Jaylen Wright ran for 123 yards and a score, one of 3 Vols RBs to earn a rushing TD. Squirrel White had 9 catches for 103 yards, including a spectacular 50-yard reception that set up a TD. The defense sacked South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler 6 times, while also scoring a TD themselves (but more on that in a moment).

This was the Vols finest moment of the 2023 season.

Worst loss: Missouri

On Saturday, Nov. 11, the 7-2 Vols traveled to Missouri to play the 7-2 Tigers. Tennessee still had a chance to win the SEC East but needed a win to put the pressure on Georgia.

Tennessee had easily handled the Tigers the previous 2 seasons, winning those games a combined 128-48. But Mizzou got its revenge with a convincing 36-7 victory.

The Vols were one of the top rushing teams in the country but could only run for 83 yards against Missouri. Tennessee’s defense was pretty good in 2023 yet allowed Tigers RB Cody Schrader to run for 205 yards and have 116 receiving yards. Schrader the 1st player in SEC history to rush for over 200 yards and have over 100 yards receiving in the same game.

The 2nd half was an absolute nightmare for Tennessee. Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz made sure to savor his 1st win over Tennessee.

Play of the Year: Kamal Hadden pick-6

Tennessee DB Kamal Hadden had moments to forget in 2023, including a missed tackle in the Florida game that was replayed seemingly nonstop on social media. He was injured during the Alabama game, and ensuing shoulder surgery cut his 2023 season short.

But late in the 2nd quarter of the South Carolina game, Hadden came up with the play of the season. With the Vols leading 17-10 and the Gamecocks backed up in the own end, Rattler was feeling the pressure from the UT defensive front.

Rattler threw to the sideline, but over the head of his receiver. Hadden was waiting to accept the gift, made the INT, and ran untouched 28 yards to the end zone. That set off a raucous celebration at Neyland Stadium. The Vols led 24-10 and never looked back.

The post Tennessee football: Taking stock of the Vols’ 2023 regular season appeared first on Saturday Down South.

This week things get considerably more favorable for the Vols when they host in-state rival Vanderbilt at 3:30 Saturday (SECN).

The Commodores are … how can I put this … not good. They are 2-9 and riding a 9-game losing streak. In only 1 of those losses was the final margin less than 16 points. They are ranked 109th nationally in total offense and 96th in scoring offense, putting up 22.27 points per game.

Defensively things look even worse. They are ranked 120th in total defense and 123rd in scoring defense, allowing over 35 points per game.

No, it is not a surprise that the Vols are massive favorites, despite a 2-game losing streak in which Tennessee was outscored 74-17.

Vandy QB Ken Seals isn’t a guy who will air out the football very much, averaging 124.7 yards through the air per outing. When he does throw, he looks to senior Will Sheppard, who leads the Commodores in receptions (45), receiving yards (64) and TD catches (8). RBs Sedrick Alexander and Patrick Smith split most of the carries and combine for 59.5 rushing yards per game.

Defensively, sophomore LB Langston Patterson has quietly put together a pretty good season, leading Vandy with 66 tackles with 8 for losses. Nate Clifton has a team leading 5.5 sacks.

Tennessee’s offense has come crashing back to earth, putting up 17 points total against Missouri and Georgia. Making matters worse, those 2 TDs came on big plays, a 46-yard pass from Joe Milton to Dont’e Thornton at Mizzou and a 75-yard run by Jaylen Wright against UGA. An offense that prides itself on long, sustained drives hasn’t been able to do much of that lately.

The QB, most of the time, gets too much credit and too much blame, and Milton has seen his share, especially of the latter. This season he’s completed 64.5% of his passes for 2,430 yards and 16 TDs. He’s also rushed for 288 yards and 5 scores. Those aren’t awful numbers. But this offense needed him to be at a Hendon Hooker stature to go from a good to a great season.

It’s not all his fault. The Bru McCoy injury in the South Carolina game was an absolute killer for this offense. Not only for what McCoy could do catching the football, but his blocking ability as well. Also, the offensive line took a step back this season.

Even with all those woes, the Vols rank 27th in the country in total offense.

Tennessee fans begging to see 5-star backup QB Nico Iamaleava will probably get their wish on Saturday. This would be Iamaleava’s 4th appearance of the season, which means they have not burned a possible redshirt opportunity. This will be Iamaleava’s team next season, and the more snaps the better.

On defense, Vols LBs Elijah Herring and Aaron Beasley have had solid campaigns. Herring is tops on the Vols with 71 tackles. while Beasley is 2nd with 63, plus a team-leading 11.5 tackles for loss.

This is a “save the season” game for Vanderbilt. Thanks to a quirk in the schedule, they are coming off a bye week, giving them some extra late season rest. For Tennessee, it’s a chance to finish the regular season with 8 wins and beat the Commodores for the 5th straight time. Well, 3rd straight if you are discounting the 2019 and 2020 wins that UT was forced to vacate due to Jeremy Pruitt’s NCAA violations.

Tennessee has more than enough talent to finish the regular season with a stress-free win. And the Vols should cover the 26.5-point spread with ease.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 49, Vanderbilt 7

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From 2010-2012, Alabama beat Tennessee by exactly 31 points in each of those 3 games. The thought then was that it could have been worse, that Saban was taking it easy on his old assistant coach, Derek Dooley, who was coaching UT those 3 years.

Whether there is any merit to that belief or not, Alabama was the dominant team. Only twice between 2007 and 2021 did the Vols even keep the final score in single digits. Tennessee finally appears to be on a somewhat equal playing field with Alabama after beating the Tide last year.

The bad news for Tennessee is that now there is a different conference rivalry in which the Vols don’t look anywhere close to being competitive, and that’s against Georgia. The Bulldogs have won 12 of the past 14 meetings, including all of the past 7.

Since 2017, Georgia has outscored Tennessee 272 to 87. The closest game of those 7 came last year, when the Vols lost 27-13.

On Saturday, the No. 18 Vols fell 38-10 in a game that wasn’t even that close. The Vols’ offense accounted for 277 yards, with 75 of those coming on the 1st play from scrimmage when Jaylen Wright broke a 75-yard TD run. Georgia QB Carson Beck was never under any serious pressure from the UT defense, converting 24 of 30 passes for 298 yards and 3 TDs.

For the second straight week, Tennessee coach Josh Heupel attempted a 4th-quarter FG with his teams already down multiple scores, seemingly in an effort to make losses look more respectable. It didn’t work against Missouri, and it didn’t work against Georgia.

For years, Tennessee tried to make the Alabama rivalry more competitive. Well, they accomplished that goal. The bad news is that there’s a bigger, badder rival that has taken its place at the top of the sport, and the Vols have the misfortune of playing that team every year.

Tennessee of course isn’t alone in its sorrow. Georgia has won 28 straight games and 44 of their last 45, plus the last 2 national championships. Kirby Smart has that program firing on all cylinders, and the rest of college football is now forced to figure out how to solve the riddle.

Making matters worse, during most of the last 17 years, whenever Alabama played at Tennessee, Neyland Stadium would be filled in Crimson red. Tide fans found ways to buy tickets and made their presence felt, taking over the Vols stadium. Saturday had that same vibe as Georgia red was easy to see — not only in the visitors’ sections, but throughout the old barn. Athens is about a 4-hour drive from Knoxville, and UGA fans made the trip in bunches.

So what can Tennessee do to reverse this trend, to make the Georgia rivalry competitive again? The answer is easier said than done. After the win over UT, Smart told CBS sideline reporter Jenny Dell that the reason for the Bulldogs’ success during this 28-game win streak was his players. Smart didn’t say that they were winning because their players were better than everyone else’s … but he didn’t need to. Everyone knows.

Maybe NIL changes the landscape. Maybe Heupel and his staff will recruit better beginning with his 3rd class, ready to sign next month. Maybe Smart gets bored with nothing left to prove and takes a shot in the NFL.

That’s a lot of maybes. The reality is that Tennessee (7-4, 3-4 SEC), like the rest of college football, is playing catch up. And Georgia doesn’t show any sign of slowing down.

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On Saturday, Tennessee will take on Georgia, a team that hasn’t lost a game in nearly 3 years. This is a massive challenge for the Vols, and if last week’s performance at Missouri is a precursor for UT, it could be a very long afternoon.

The Vols didn’t move the football effectively and couldn’t stop the Tigers from running through their defense. When your punter is your player of the game, it was a lousy day. Tennessee’s 36-7 loss to Missouri was the worst defeat in the Josh Heupel era.

And now, the Bulldogs roll into Knoxville coming off their best performance of the year. The Bulldogs’ 52-17 win over 13th-ranked Ole Miss proved again that when playing at their best, UGA is a serious problem for the rest of the sport.

Georgia’s offense is elite. Ranked 5th nationally in total offense (504.8 yards per game) and 6th in scoring offense (40.6 points per game), they’ve been tough to stop this season.

QB Carson Beck might not be Stetson Bennett, but for this offense he’s a good fit. Beck has completed 72% of his passes for 3,022 yards and 18 TDs. Senior RBs Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton have rushed for a combined 1,113 yards and 17 scores, making them a solid 1-2 punch.

WRs Dominic Lovett, Ladd McConkey and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint give Beck lots of options, but his go-to in the passing game is TE Brock Bowers. One of the best players in the country, Bowers missed a month of action following ankle surgery. He returned for the Ole Miss game, making 3 catches for 34 yards and a score.

The Georgia defense is just as good as the offense. It is ranked 9th nationally in total defense (289.2 yards allowed per game) and 6th in scoring defense (15.6 points allowed per game). Six Bulldogs have at least 33 tackles, with ILB Smael Mondon, Jr. leading the way with 48. DB Tykee Smith has 6.5 tackles for loss.

Despite losing 10 players to the NFL Draft in April, this is a team with few weaknesses.

As for Tennessee, the Vols rushing offense, which was so good most of the season, came crashing back to Earth with only 83 yards against Missouri. The Vols still rank 8th in the nation in rushing, but their performance against the Tigers is a concern.

Like the rest of the offense, QB Joe Milton struggled in the 2nd half against Mizzou, which prompted many Vols fans to call for 5-star backup Nico Iamaleava to get more run. That might happen in the regular season finale against Vanderbilt, but there’s no way Josh Heupel starts Iamaleava against Georgia’s defense.

Speaking of defense, Tennessee’s defense played its worst game of the year against Missouri. Truman State great Cody Schrader ran for 205 yards and added 115 receiving yards, making him the 1st player to eclipse 200 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards in the same game in the history of the SEC.

Not great, Bob!

A guy that really has made a jump this season for the Vols’ defense is sophomore LB Elijah Herring. He leads UT with 65 tackles. Herring will probably need to be one of the best players on the field if the Vols are going to have any chance of pulling an upset against Georgia.

Tennessee will have the advantage of playing this game at Neyland Stadium, a place where they have won 14 games in a row. The old barn is once again one of the loudest and most intimidating buildings in all of college football. UT’s last home loss came back on Nov. 13, 2021 … against Georgia.

The Bulldogs have already clinched the SEC East and a spot in the conference title game against Alabama. UGA is riding a 27-game win streak, and that’s not coming to an end this weekend.

Fearless Prediction time …

Georgia 42, Tennessee 24

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This year in Columbia (Missouri), it was a blowout loss to the Tigers that officially ended Tennessee’s SEC East hopes.

This was revenge for Eli Drinkwitz and the Missouri program. The last 2 seasons, they fell to Tennessee by a combined 128-48. But on Saturday afternoon they gave Josh Heupel the biggest loss in the nearly 3 years he’s been in charge of the Vols program. Mizzou held Tennessee to 7 points, the lowest output under Heupel for this high-powered offensive attack.

Other than the locust invasion and monsoon, how was your vacation?

The Vols have won 14 straight games in Knoxville. They have played in front of 11 straight sellout crowds. No issues there. But it is well past time to talk about how Tennessee plays football away from the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium.

This season the Vols have played 4 games on the road and won only once, a 33-27 victory at Kentucky. But Kroger Field is a place that UT has only lost twice over the last 4+ decades, so for the purposes of this conversation, wins at UK probably shouldn’t even count.

Back in September, the Vols played poorly in the 1st half at Florida, eventually losing 29-16. In October, the Vols played poorly in the 2nd half at Alabama, eventually losing 34-20. And of course, in November the Vols played poorly for most of the day at Missouri before losing 36-7.

Tennessee’s rushing attack, which had averaged 361 yards against Missouri the past 2 years, could only account for 83 rushing yards this time around. Making matters worse, UT repeated the mistakes of the Florida game. Dylan Sampson didn’t get a single opportunity against the Gators, and got only 3 carries against the Tigers. Oh, and all of those carries came on Tennessee’s final drive of the game.

Through the air, Joe Milton’s accuracy went by the wayside in the 2nd half. He also had a fumble and threw a pick-6.

Defensively, Tennessee had shown much improvement this season, but lived a nightmare in COMO. Cody Schrader got 35 carries against UT for a whopping 205 yards and a score. He also caught 5 passes for 116 yards. That made him the 1st player in the history of the SEC to rush for 200+ yards and have 100+ receiving yards in the same game.

Not Bo Jackson. Not Herschel Walker. Not Darren McFadden.

Cody Schrader.

But at least Tennessee punter Jackson Ross had a nice day, with 3 punts landing inside the 20 and 2 of those inside the Mizzou 3-yard line.

“I would say it was 4 quarters of hell for Tennessee,” said CBS color commentator Gary Danielson after the game.

Indeed.

Maybe the most embarrassing moment came with 40 seconds left in the game. Tennessee was down 36-7 and facing 4th-and-goal from the Mizzou 23. Heupel sent Charles Campbell onto the field to attempt a 41-yard FG.

What purpose that served … who knows. But the decision apparently angered the football gods, as Campbell missed the kick to the right.

Going on the road in the SEC can be a difficult experience, and it must be just that for Tennessee.

But why?

Tennessee has its best coaching staff since the Phillip Fulmer era. The Vols roster is filled with experienced players who have gotten a significant number of snaps in hostile environments.

But when UT boards an airplane, this is a much different looking team.

Tennessee is now 6-7 in their last 13 true road games, with 2 of those wins coming at Kentucky and 1 at Vandy. Both of those rivals’ stadiums are less than a 3-hour drive from the UT campus. UT’s best road win under Heupel would be at LSU in October of last year.

In those 7 road losses we discussed, Tennessee wasn’t very competitive. The tightest margin in any of those games was 13 points.

There are no easy answers to this problem. But if the Vols are going to take the next step as a program, they need to play better away from home.

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This is a series that currently is tilted in Tennessee’s direction, as the Vols have won the last 4 matchups. In Josh Heupel’s time at UT, the Vols have been dominant when facing Missouri, winning the last 2 games by a combined score of 128-48.

There’s also a little bad blood between these programs, stemming in part from Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz having fun at Tennessee’s expense when their recruiting violations under former coach Jeremy Pruitt came to light.

“I thought you were going to introduce my record,” Drinkwitz said on the Jim Rome show in July 2022. “But with the latest allegations against Tennessee, let’s hold up on what my record is because I expect them to vacate some wins and that’s gonna help my record a little bit.”

For the record, Drinkwitz is 0-3 against the Vols heading into Saturday’s showdown (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).

This season, No. 12 Missouri has been a pleasant surprise in the SEC East, currently sitting at 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the league — same as No. 17 Tennessee. Junior QB Brady Cook has taken a step forward for the Tigers, averaging 274 yards passing per game, with a 16 to 4 TD to INT ratio. Sophomore WR Luther Burden III is Cook’s top option, with Burden leading the Tigers in catches (64), receiving yards (958) and TD catches (7). Cody Schrader carries the load on the ground for the Tigers, averaging 102 yards per game.

Missouri is ranked 36th in the country in total offense at 434 yards per game.

On defense, the Tigers rank 41st in the nation, allowing 343 yards per game. They give up 24 points per game, placing them 52nd nationally. Up front, Darius Robinson and Johnny Walker Jr. have combined for 16 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks. Senior LB Ty’Ron Hopper leads the Tigers with 53 tackles.

Tennessee’s offense is coming off perhaps its most complete performance of the season, a 59-3 destruction of UConn. Yes, the Huskies are awful, but 650 yards of offense is nothing to sneeze at. QB Joe Milton only played in the 1st half but completed 11 of 14 passes for 254 yards and 2 TDs. He also ran for a score. Milton’s improvement has been a big boost for this offense.

The Vols rushing attack is one of the best in the sport. Tennessee averages 227.8 rushing yards per game, 3rd best in the country. Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small, Dylan Sampson … that trio continues to impress. Through the air Squirrel White leads the Vols in catches (45) and receiving yards (556), with TE McCallan Castles becoming more involved in recent weeks.

Defensively, the Vols now stand 21st in the country in yards (319.6) and points (18.44) allowed per contest. DC Tim Banks has done a tremendous job and has a collection of impressive players making a living in the opponent’s backfield. LB Elijah Herring leads the Vols with 59 tackles. Aaron Beasley has 9 tackles for loss. Tyler Baron has 8 tackles for loss with 5 sacks. James Pearce Jr. leads the Vols with 10 TFLs and 7 sacks.

Tennessee is 5th in the country in tackles for loss, making 8.2 such stops per game. This is an aggressive group that will try to make life difficult for Brady Cook.

This game might come down to a battle between Wright, Small and Sampson against the Mizzou run stoppers. The Vols have been able to run up, over and through the Tigers, averaging 361 rushing yards the last 2 years. But Mizzou is much improved in that area, currently sitting 24th in the nation and giving up only 114 yards per game on the ground this season.

Missouri is coming off a game against Georgia in which it stayed with the top-ranked team in the nation into the 4th quarter. The Tigers are capable of snapping their losing streak to the Vols, and they get this game in Columbia.

But Heupel, who was the OC at Missouri in 2016 and 2017, seems to have his former employer’s number. This will be a close game, but in the end the Vols will prove to be the better team. …

Tennessee 31, Missouri 27

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And before the game, for some reason players for 1-7 UConn decided to warm up on the Tennessee side of the field, causing a minor dustup between these teams. Was that a good idea? The 59-3 result proves that it was not.

Let’s break it down to levels beyond scientific.

Player of the Week: Joe Milton

Tennessee’s 6th-year senior QB continues to show improvement as the year goes on. Against UConn, Milton completed 11 of 14 passes for 254 yards and 2 TDs. He also had a 6-yard TD run. That makes it 4 times this season that Milton had thrown a TD pass and rushed for a TD in the same game. And Milton didn’t play in the 2nd half against the Huskies.

The Vols also took their shots down the field, with Milton completing a 60-yard TD to Ramel Keyton and an 83-yard TD to Squirrel White (although White did most of the work on that one).

Milton looks a lot different these days than the QB who threw for only 100 yards in the win over Texas A&M back on Oct. 14. Tennessee needs him to play at this level if it is going to beat Missouri and Georgia (more on the Mizzou game in a moment).

Freshman of the Week: Nico Iamaleava

Tennessee fans were hoping this game would be a blowout, which would allow 5-star freshman QB Nico Iamaleava to get some playing time.

He got into the game in the 3rd quarter and looked pretty good. Iamaleava completed 5 of 9 passes for 89 yards and his first collegiate TD, a 19-yard hookup with McCallan Castles. He also had 1 rushing attempt for 25 yards, a glimpse of the mobility that he will bring to the position in 2024.

Biggest surprise: Tennessee’s 3 defensive scores

Going into this game the Vols defense had scored 1 TD this season, the memorable pick-6 by Kamal Hadden against South Carolina.

Well, against UConn, Tennessee scored 3 defensive touchdowns. That run started with a 24-yard scoop-and-score by DE Tyler Baron in the 2nd quarter. In the 3rd quarter there was a 30-yard pick-6 from DB Jaylen McCollough followed by a 39-yard pick-6 by LB Aaron Beasley.

Tennessee’s sports information folks say that this was the first time since at least 1949 that UT scored 3 defensive TDs in the same game (box scores only go back as far as 1949).

Biggest concern: Secondary play

Finding negatives following a 56-point victory isn’t easy, but the Vols secondary is reason for worry. Yes, McCollough did have that pick-6, but they also allowed UConn QB Ta’Quan Roberson to complete 24 passes for 216 yards.

They really miss Kamal Hadden.

Developing trend: Running game dominates

Tennessee’s rushing attack remains one of the best in the nation. Against UConn the Vols ran for 275 yards at 8.1 per carry. Jaylen Wright had an 82-yard TD run on the 2nd play of the game on his way to a 113-yard day. Wright has now rushed for over 2,110 yards in his UT career, 15th in program history.

Dylan Sampson only got 5 carries and Jabari Small dressed but didn’t play after getting banged up in the UK game. Freshman Cameron Seldon got some much-needed experience with 6 carries for 35 yards.

When clicking, this group is tough to stop.

Key stat: 13 tackles for loss

After a subpar performance in terms of tackles for loss against Kentucky, the Vols bounced back with 13 against UConn. DE Tyler Baron had 2 of them.

The Huskies offense might not bring fear into the hearts of opposing defenses, but seeing the Vols create havoc in the UConn backfield is an encouraging sign heading into the final 3 weeks of the season.

First impression about Week 11 at Missouri game

During Josh Heupel’s 1st 2 seasons in Knoxville, he has owned Missouri. The Vols outscored the Tigers 62-24 in their 2021 meeting in Columbia, and 66-24 in their Knoxville matchup a year ago.

But Eli Drinkwitz has Missouri looking like one of the most improved teams in the country. The No. 2 Tigers are 7-2 — same as No. 17 Tennessee — and gave top-ranked Georgia a battle on Saturday in Athens. The Vols might not have as easy an outing this time around against the Tigers.

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On paper this doesn’t look like much of a battle. The folks in the big shiny buildings in the Nevada desert consider Tennessee to be a massive favorite. But these games aren’t played on paper. They are played in cathedrals like Neyland Stadium. Fans making the trip from the Northeast (and yes, some fans are coming from Storrs) will get a bucket list experience that the UMass rivalry game simply doesn’t provide.

The Huskies might be 1-7, but 6 of their 8 games have been decided by 10 points or less. They lost to South Florida by only a FG, and to NC State by 10 points. They have shown the ability to play opponents close. Whether they can do that this weekend remains to be seen.

UConn is led by QB Ta’Quan Roberson, who is throwing for 182 yards per game, with 8 TD passes and 3 INTs. Cameron Ross and Brett Buckman are his top 2 options in the passing attack, with nearly identical stats. Ross has 31 catches for 338 yards and a score, while Buckman has 31 catches for 335 yards and a TD. Victor Rosa and Cam Edwards split the carries, with each averaging just over 5 yards per attempt. Rosa did miss last week’s loss to Boston College with an ankle injury.

But this is not an offense that will strike fear into its opponents. UConn is currently ranked 114th national in total offense with 315.9 yards per game and 115th in scoring at 19.8 points per contest.

Defensively, senior LB Jackson Mitchell has a team high 81 tackles, while defensive lineman Pryce Yates is tops on the team with 3.5 sacks. But it’s a group allowing 29.25 points per game, putting them in a tie for 95th nationally with Purdue.

Jim Mora’s Huskies were a surprising 6-7 with a bowl game appearance a year ago, but now in his second season at UConn, they’ve came back to reality.

As for Tennessee, the Vols are coming off a 33-27 win over Kentucky, their 36th victory in the past 39 meetings. UT has also won 19 of its last 21 games in Lexington. There are few certainties in life, but UT finding ways to beat UK in football is close to a sure thing.

The much-maligned passing game took a step forward as Joe Milton completed 18 of 21 passes for 221 yards and a TD. But the running game remains where this Tennessee team thrives. Jaylen Wright got the Vols off to a great start against Kentucky with a 52-yard rushing TD on their 1st possession, on his way to a 120-yard night. Dylan Sampson took control of the game in the 4th quarter with 90 all-purpose yards in that frame, plus a 12-yard TD run. The Vols lead the SEC in rushing at 221.8 yards per game.

On defense the Vols couldn’t get much of a pass rush going against Kentucky, but they are still one of the best teams in the country in sacks, ranked 6th nationally with 3.62 per game. The secondary is a concern. They allowed 372 yards through the air to UK’s Devin Leary, who was averaging only 197 per game up until facing the Vols.

After this game, Tennessee has 2 huge matchups — at Missouri on Nov. 11 and home to top ranked Georgia on Nov. 18. The Vols would love to get their starters out of the game as soon as possible. That was supposed to be the plan against Austin Peay, but the Governors were much tougher than expected, pushing that game into the 4th quarter.

History won’t repeat itself.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 45, UConn 6

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Much like the Vols hardly ever find a way to beat Florida, the Wildcats rarely get past Tennessee. Mark Stoops has been the head coach at UK for 11 seasons, with much of that time while UT was mediocre at best. But Kentucky is now 2-9 against Tennessee under Stoops, and Cats fans are understandably frustrated.

Look no further than Stoops going for it on 4th-and-1 from UK’s 34 in the 1st quarter. The Wildcats didn’t get it, and the Vols turned that gift into a FG. It was a panic call by Stoops and the Vols took advantage.

It’s Tennessee/Kentucky. Things like that just … happen.

Let’s delve into the stock report for Tennessee football following a 33-27 win for the Vols in Lexington.

Player of the Week: Charles Campbell

Am I going to give this prestigious honor to a kicker? Why yes … yes, I am. Tennessee’s Charles Campbell kicked 4 FGs, with lengths of 44, 49, 34 and 35 yards, the latter banging in off the top of the goalpost. He also converted all 3 of his extra point attempts.

Of course, UT would rather score TDs, but those kicks kept Tennessee in control of the game. The Vols never trailed the Wildcats in this game, thanks in large part of Campbell’s clutch kicks. Campbell is now 15-of-17 on FG attempts this season, with his only misses coming from 50 or more yards.

Freshman of the Week: Chas Nimrod

The redshirt freshman from Bentonville, Arkansas, only had 1 catch against Kentucky, but boy did UT need that one. Nimrod burned his defender and caught a 39-yard pass from Joe Milton for a TD. That play came midway through the 2nd quarter and gave Tennessee a 20-10 lead.

The deep ball has been severely lacking for this Tennessee offense, but just maybe Nimrod can help change that soon.

Biggest surprise: Lack of defensive pressure

Coming into this game Tennessee was ranked 3rd nationally in sacks, averaging 4 per game. They were ranked 6th in tackles for loss with 8.1 per game.

But against Kentucky we didn’t see the Vols in the Wildcats backfield very often. Omarr Norman-Lott had the only sack for UT, and as a team the defense collected only 4 tackles for loss.

Biggest concern: Tennessee secondary

UK QB Devin Leary entered this game completing only 54% of his passes and had thrown 7 INTs. The NC State transfer has not been very impressive this season. But against the Vols he looked like Joe Montana, completing 72% of his passes. Leary went 28-of-39 for a whopping 372 yards and 2 TDs.

The loss of Kamal Hadden to season-ending shoulder surgery is being felt in that defensive backs room. UT got past UK on Saturday night but might not be as fortunate against future ranked opponents Missouri and Georgia.

Developing trend: Passing game improvement

Despite a 2nd half to forget last weekend for the entire Tennessee roster at Alabama, Tennessee QB Joe Milton threw for 271 yards. Against Kentucky he went 18-of-21 for 228 yards and a TD.

Following a win over Texas A&M in which Milton only threw for 100 yards, you wouldn’t have expected Milton to improve, especially with his accuracy. But UT sure is happy to see it.

Key stat: 253 rushing yards

The Vols entered this game ranked 7th in the country in rushing offense, picking up 217.3 yards per game. Against Kentucky, UT beat that handily, rushing for 253 yards. Jaylen Wright had a team-high 120 yards on 11 carries, including a 52-yard TD that opened the scoring. Dylan Sampson had 75 yards on the ground, including a 12-yard TD scamper in the 4th quarter. Jabari Small added 32 yards.

And don’t discount the contribution of Milton, who has been more active in the run game lately. Milton had 10 carries against UK.

Tennessee relied on its run game to close the game out, and they came up with some key 1st downs.

First impression about Week 10

vs. UConn: It’ll be Homecoming Weekend on The Hill, and Tennessee alums returning to campus will get an early kickoff (noon) and see the Vols face a paycheck opponent.

UConn is coming off a 21-14 loss at Boston College, a loss that dropped the Huskies to 1-7. Tennessee knows that more difficult opponents lie ahead and would love to get their starters some rest. This game would also give younger players who haven’t seen the field very much the opportunity for playing time.

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This weekend Tennessee makes the short trip up I-75 to face rival Kentucky in Lexington. Much like the Vols often play their worst game of the season against Florida, Kentucky rarely puts together a solid performance against Tennessee.

UT has only lost to UK 3 times since 1985, and each of those losses was proof that the head coach in charge of Tennessee’s program wasn’t going to get it done. In 2011 it was Derek Dooley running the show in a 10-7 loss that snapped a 26-game win streak for Tennessee over Kentucky. In 2017, Butch Jones was on the sidelines for a 29-26 failure in Lexington. And in 2020, Jeremy Pruitt saw Jarrett Guarantano throw not 1 but 2 pick-6s in a 34-7 bludgeoning.

I’m not saying that if Tennessee loses on Saturday night Josh Heupel should be canned … far from it. Heupel is a much better head coach at this point in his Tennessee tenure than the guys I mentioned. The Vols are 16-4 since the start of the 2022 season, and Heupel has an overall mark of 23-10 at UT. But a loss to the Wildcats would be a big stain on his resume.

This season Kentucky got off to a 5-0 start, but once the schedule picked up, the victories stopped. Georgia and Missouri easily handed the Wildcats, outscoring UK a combined 89-34.

Kentucky running back Ray Davis is having a huge year. He leads the SEC in rushing yards per game at 111.6, all-purpose yards per game with 139.1 and touchdowns scored with 13. He will be a challenge for the Vols’ rushing defense, which is ranked 24th nationally.

Senior QB Devin Leary is only completing 54% of his passes. He throws for just under 200 yards per game, with 14 TD passes, plus a less than ideal 7 INTs. Tayvion Robinson and Barion Brown each have caught 23 passes to lead the Cats in that category.

The Wildcats are ranked 50th in total defense and 55th in scoring defense, allowing just under 24 points per game. LB D’Eryk Jackson and DB Maxwell Hairston are tops with 44 tackles each, while DL Deone Walker has 6.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks. LB Trevin Wallace has 5 sacks.

Mark Stoops has done a very good job in making Kentucky relevant in football. Now in his 11th season, Stoops has a 71-61 record in Lexington. The Wildcats almost always get to the postseason. But Stoops’ 34-52 record in SEC play and 2-8 mark against Tennessee leave something to be desired.

As for Tennessee, the Vols are still smarting from their 34-20 loss at Alabama, a game UT led 20-7 at the half. Mathematics tells us that the Vols gave up 27 unanswered points in a 2nd half to forget. Failures on 4th-and-short continue to plague the Vols, failing to pick up a 1st down twice in those situations against the Tide. They are 1 for their last 10 overall on 4th down attempts.

Joe Milton had 28 completions for 271 yards and 2 TDs in that game, but most of those good vibes were nowhere to be seen in the final 30 minutes. This remains a run-dominant offense, ranked 7th in the country with 217 yards per game on the ground.

Squirrel White is now without question the top option for Milton in the UT passing game. Following his 10-catch, 111-yard with a TD performance against Alabama, White now has 39 receptions for 416 yards this season.

That Squirrel White TD also earned Vols fans a free 6-pack of soda from a Knoxville area convenience store. Did the Fearless Prediction fill the fridge? You know it! NIL quenches thirst.

Defensively, the Vols are ranked 17th in the nation in total defense and tied for 28th in scoring defense, allowing 19.4 points per game. Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. is putting together an all-SEC caliber season, now with 7 sacks and 10 tackles for loss.

This will be the 119th time that Tennessee has played Kentucky. The Vols have controlled the series, leading 83-26-9. It’s a game that UK fans want desperately to win. Kentucky is coming off a bye week, giving them 7 extra days to get healthy and prepare for Tennessee.

This game will be played at Kroger Field. Maybe those Wildcats fans will get some fuel points with their ticket purchases. But they won’t get to see a big blue victory.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 31, Kentucky 21

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The Alabama game went nearly perfectly for Tennessee in the opening 30 minutes … except that the Vols got inside the Tide 10-yard line 3 times yet only scored 13 points. Leaving 8 points out there came back to haunt the Vols in a huge way, as they were outscored 27-0 in the 2nd half on their way to a 34-20 loss, their 10th straight in Tuscaloosa.

Tennessee is now 5-2, but there is a lot of football left to play. Can the Vols get to a New Year’s 6 bowl game? Will UT once again see a November swoon like the one that kept them out of the College Football Playoff in 2022?

With all due reverence to the Fearless Prediction (which I hope you read on a weekly basis), let’s try to predict what the Vols do the rest of the way. Keep in mind that these are picks that we are making on Oct. 22. Injuries, momentum … that type of stuff could change our selections as time goes on.

Week 9: at Kentucky

Skinny: Tennessee owns Kentucky in football. They have an 82-26-9 record over the past 130 years. That’s a long period of dominance!

In recent years, it has felt that no matter where UT or UK stand, the Vols are going to find a way to win this game. In fact, the Vols have only lost to Kentucky 3 times since 1985.

The Wildcats get this meeting at legendary Kroger Field (please note the sarcasm). This game will also be played at night, and there may be no place colder in the world than a late October night game in Lexington. That could slow down the Vols … or at least freeze out their fans who are considering making the trip up I-75.

The Wildcats are coming off a bye week while UT is coming off a physical and emotional loss to Alabama. UK isn’t a bad football team, but they’ve lost 2 in a row (at Georgia, home to Mizzou) to the only 2 decent opponents they’ve seen.

Tennessee isn’t losing the Kentucky game. Losing to the Cats would be a devastating event.

Prediction: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 21

Week 10: vs. UConn

Skinny: In 2022, UConn went 6-7 and earned a spot in the prestigious (sarcasm) Myrtle Beach Bowl. This isn’t a program used to playing in the postseason.

In 2023, the Huskies have returned to Earth. UConn is 1-6. Their only win is over Rice. I think that the Vols remedy their ills with a big victory on Homecoming weekend in Knoxville.

Prediction: Tennessee 45, UConn 7

Week 11: at Missouri

Skinny: Eli Drinkwitz is goofy. He looks more like an Enron official than a football coach. But he’s done a really nice job at Mizzou. The Tigers are 7-1, 2nd in the SEC East, and daring to dream about big things.

They get a bye week before they travel to top-ranked Georgia, and they have the potential of giving the Bulldogs a game.

I don’t have a good feeling about that trip to Columbia for the Vols. Again, things might change by the time this game is played on Nov. 11, but have you seen anything from the Vols that gives you confidence they can beat a quality team on the road?

Prediction: Missouri 31, Tennessee 27

Week 12: vs. Georgia

Skinny: The Vols haven’t beaten Georgia since 2016, when Josh Dobbs connected with Jauan Jennings on an Athens Hail Mary.

As for today, the Bulldogs have won 24 in a row. Tight end Brock Brewers has had ankle surgery and may or may not be ready to go at Neyland Stadium, but I don’t think that matters.

Prediction: Georgia 31, Tennessee 17

Week 13: vs. Vanderbilt

Tennessee will enter their rivalry game against the Commodores with a 7-4 record. Vanderbilt won’t be playing for a bowl game. As of today, they have lost 6 in a row and things won’t get better with Ole Miss, Auburn and South Carolina to come before Tennessee.

While the Vols will not be able to play in a major bowl game, they won’t allow themselves to lose to an inferior opponent.

Prediction: Tennessee 35, Vanderbilt 14

Tennessee final record prediction: 8-4

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This has traditionally been a streaky series, and the Crimson Tide had that going in their favor for 15 years. That run finally came to an end thanks to Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt and a wounded quail of a field goal from Chase McGrath in UT’s 52-49 win last season.

But there’s another streak that the Vols need to end as well. Tennessee hasn’t won a game in Tuscaloosa since 2003. That’s 9 consecutive losses at Bryant-Denny Stadium. They’ve come close a couple of times, but for the most part those meetings haven’t been close.

Does Tennessee have enough firepower to get a win over Alabama? The passing game is a concern. Joe Milton completed 50% of his passes for only 100 yards against Texas A&M, and threw an INT early in the 4th quarter. He must be better against the Tide for the Vols have a shot at pulling the upset.

His receivers need to be better too. Ramel Keyton had a couple of drops against the Aggies, including one that would have been a sure TD. This is a pass-catching group that sorely misses Bru McCoy, out for the year following ankle surgery.

The strength of this UT offense is the rushing attack. Now ranked 6th in the nation, the Vols gain 230.3 yards per game on the ground. Jaylen Wright has rushed for 571 yards on 7.1 per carry. Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson make significant contributions as well. The Vols offensive line opens massive holes.

This might not be one of Nick Saban’s best defenses, but most of the numbers aren’t that bad. The Crimson Tide are 18th in the country for run defense, 23rd in passing yards allowed and 12th in scoring defense.

Junior LB Dallas Turner is having a big year for Alabama with 7 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. Freshman DB Caleb Downs leads the Tide with 54 tackles.

The Crimson Tide offense finally settled on Jalen Milroe at QB. He is completing 64% of his passes with 11 TDs and 4 INTs. Milroe is coming off a shaky performance against Arkansas which saw him complete only 1 of 9 passes during a 2nd half stretch that nearly saw the Razorbacks rally for an upset.

Milroe’s top 2 options are Jermaine Burton and Isiah Bond, who have combined for 39 catches, 729 yards and 6 TDs. Senior RB Jase McClellan leads Alabama on the ground with 454 yards and 3 TDs. Fellow senior Roydell Williams has 319 rushing yards. They aren’t as explosive as last year’s offense with Bryce Young at QB, but the Tide can still move the ball down the field.

Too often during the Josh Heupel era, it has been the Vols offense winning games despite below average performances from the defense. Well, against A&M it was the UT defense that carried the offense to victory. It allowed only 3 points in the 2nd half and came away with 2 INTs in the final few minutes to clinch the win.

But that wasn’t a one-shot deal. Tennessee’s defense is ranked 3rd nationally in sacks, tied for 3rd in tackles for loss and tied for 18th in scoring defense. They are also 17th in total defense, allowing just over 300 yards a game. Except for about 10 minutes at Florida last month, the Vols defense has been terrific this season.

LBs Aaron Beasley and Elijah Herring are at the top of Tennessee’s tackles list, with a combined 73 stops. But the breakout star is sophomore edge rusher James Pearce Jr., who leads the Vols with 9 tackles for loss and 6 sacks. Against the Aggies, Pearce had 3 tackles, 2 for loss, a sack and a career-high 5 quarterback hurries. Tennessee’s defensive front has been a nightmare for opposing offensive coordinators this season.

Alabama’s weakness looks to be their offensive line. They are a woeful 113th in the country in tackles for loss allowed (7.14 per game) and 129th in sacks allowed (4.43 per game). Milroe himself has been sacked at least 4 times in his past 5 games. There should be a lot of opportunities for the Vols to add to that streak.

Tennessee isn’t alone in its futility in Tuscaloosa. Since the start of the 2008 season, Alabama is 101-6 in all games played at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

I think that the Vols defense will keep this close, and UT will lean on its terrific running game. But there will be moments when the passing game must come through for the Vols to win, and I don’t see that happening.

Fearless Prediction time …

Alabama 24, Tennessee 20

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Their 20-13 decision over Texas A&M puts the Vols at 5-1 at the halfway point of the season, and still sets them up for big things in the future. Let’s look back at another special afternoon at Neyland Stadium.

Player of the Week: Dee Williams

On an afternoon in which Jaylen Wright ran for 136 yards against the 8th-best rushing defense in the nation, this award could have easily gone to the Vols junior RB.

But senior special teamer Dee Williams came up with the 2 biggest plays of the game. In the 3rd quarter with Tennessee trailing 10-7, Williams downed a punt at the half-yard line. The Aggies were only able to move the ball about 18 inches, meaning that their punter, Nik Constantinou, had little room to get a punt of his own away.

Williams caught a line drive at the 39, made some sweet moves and then sprinted into the end zone, giving the Vols a 14-10 lead that they’d never relinquish.

The Vols don’t win this game without Dee Williams.

Freshman of the Week: Chas Nimrod

With 5th-year senior WR Bru McCoy gone for the season following ankle surgery, UT knew it would need others to step up.

Chas Nimrod, who entered this game with only 1 reception, led the Vols against the Aggies in catches with 4 and receiving yards with 31. Those numbers won’t get Nimrod on the Biletnikoff Award watch list, but on a day in which the Vols only passed for 100 yards, his contribution was crucial.

Biggest surprise: Forcing late-game turnovers

As improved as the Vols might be on defense, they have underachieved in one area, and that’s forcing turnovers. Through their 1st 5 games, the Vols only collected 6 turnovers, putting them in a tie for 95th nationally.

But late in the game, the UT defense thwarted 2 potential game-winning drives thanks to INTs from Gabe Jeudy-Lally and Kamal Hadden.

Biggest concern: Penalties

Entering the Texas A&M game the Vols were 67th in the country in penalties, averaging more than 7 per game. Against the Aggies, Tennessee was penalized 12 times for 115 yards, many of those flags drive-killers for the UT offense and drive-extenders for Texas A&M.

The Vols are now in the middle of their most difficult stretch of the season. They were able to persevere versus A&M but might not be as fortunate against future opponents.

Developing trend: Neyland Stadium dominance

Once again, the Vols have one of the top home field advantages in all of college football. They’ve now won 13 games in a row at Neyland Stadium, the 4th-longest home win streak in the sport. They haven’t lost a game in Knoxville since Nov. 13, 2021 against Georgia. Tennessee has also won 7 straight games at home against SEC opponents.

The Vols have had 10 straight sellouts, which is no easy task when your capacity is 101,915. The fans were loud from the get-go against the Aggies and gave the Vols a shot in the arm when things were tight.

Key stat: 232 rushing yards

Wright says that Tennessee has the best running back room in the nation, and it’s not a ridiculous assessment.

Entering this game, the Vols were 7th in the country in rushing offense, averaging 231 yards a game. Against an Aggies defense that was giving up only 84 yards on the ground per game, the Vols ran for a whopping 232 yards. Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson combined for 203 of those yards.

With the passing game sputtering, UT leaned on its running backs, and they were up to the task.

First impression about Week 8: The Alabama Game

It’s been 12 months since the Vols shocking 52-49 win over Alabama, UT’s first such victory in 15 tries against their hated rivals. Tennessee fans have basked in the glow of what was one of the most memorable nights of football in the 100+ years of Neyland Stadium. Now, the Vols look for their 1st win in Tuscaloosa since 2003.

It appears that reports of the death of the Crimson Tide have been greatly exaggerated. Since that loss to Texas on Sept. 9, Alabama has run off 5 straight wins, and looks to be on the road to winning the SEC West.

The Crimson Tide are not nearly as dominant as their championship teams of the past, and they looked shaky in Saturday’s 24-21 win over a struggling Arkansas team. But Tennessee will be the underdogs next weekend.

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On Saturday the Vols host Texas A&M for only the 2nd time since the Aggies joined the SEC in 2012. The 1st meeting in Knoxville was Jeremy Pruitt’s final game as Tennessee’s head coach, at the end of the COVID season of 2020. That was a social distancing crowd, so this weekend will be Texas A&M’s true introduction to Neyland Stadium.

Let’s talk about the Aggies first, and boy oh boy is there a lot to talk about.

Texas A&M (4-2, 2-1) is coming off a 26-20 loss to Alabama, a game the Aggies led 17-10 at the half. Over the final 30 minutes, head coach Jimbo Fisher made a number of questionable decisions. The most egregious call came with 3 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. Facing a 4th-and-1 from the Alabama 45 with the game tied at 17, the Aggies punted. The ball went into the end zone, and then the Crimson Tide marched 80 yards and scored the go-ahead TD. The Aggies never led again.

That was some serious Butch Jones energy in playing not to lose. Now, the Aggies must regroup only 7 days later for a trip to Knoxville.

Max Johnson has taken over for injured starter Conner Weigman at quarterback and has had some good and some bad moments. Johnson is completing 61% of his passes with 7 TDs and 2 INTs. Evan Stewart and Ainias Smith have combined for 53 receptions and 834 yards, with Stewart adding 4 scores.

The Aggies don’t run the ball especially well, averaging 144.8 yards per game. That places them in a tie for 79th with … Arkansas State. (What was I saying about the Butch Jones energy these days in College Station?) Le’Veon Moss is tops on the team in rushing, averaging 65 yards per game.

The Aggies secondary was torched by Alabama WR Jermaine Burton, who caught 9 passes for 197 yards and 2 scores. Tennessee’s passing game has had its struggles, but Vols QB Joe Milton surely saw a bunch of things to exploit this week during film study.

One thing that both teams have going for them is defensive pressure on their opponents. These are the top 2 squads in the country in sacks, with the Vols collecting an average of 4.4 per game and the Aggies picking up 4.3 an outing. In terms of tackles for loss, Texas A&M is tied for 1st in the FBS with 9.5 per game, with Tennessee coming in 3rd at 9.4. Both offensive lines will be tested on Saturday afternoon.

The No. 19 Vols (4-1, 1-1) will have to find a way to limit LB Edgerrin Cooper, who is having a monster year for the Aggies. He leads them in tackles (41), sacks (6) and tackles for loss (12). Former 5-star recruit Walter Nolan, who played his senior year of HS football about 15 minutes from the UT campus at Powell, has 4 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss for the Aggies.

While the Aggies struggle running the football, Tennessee thrives in that aspect of the game. The Vols are gaining 231.1 yards per game on the ground, 7th best in the country. Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson are as good a 1-2-3 punch as you’ll find in the sport.

In the passing game, the Vols will have had 2 weeks to adjust to life without Bru McCoy, out for the season with a right ankle fracture. That means more chances and stress on Squirrel White and Ramel Keyton. Tennessee survived without Cedric Tillman for much of the year in 2022, and it hopes to do so without one of its top playmakers once again.

Defensively, senior LB Aaron Beasley continues to impress, while sophomore DL James Pearce Jr. is getting better each week for the 21st ranked defense in the FBS.

The Vols have had a week to get healthy while the Aggies just played a very physical opponent. “Checker Neyland” will be at its rowdy best this weekend. UT fans haven’t seen their Vols lose since November 2021, as Tennessee is riding a 12-game home win streak. On the flip side of that coin, Texas A&M has lost their last 7 true road games.

I don’t think those streaks are going to end this Saturday.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 31, Texas A&M 24

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The bye week brought with it a chance to reintroduce ourselves to our families and gives us the opportunity to see where things stand for the Vols after the 1st 5 games.

First, the way the schedule broke down likely makes Tennessee fans feel better these days. Had the loss to Florida come in Week 5 instead of Week 3, there would major angst amongst Vol Nation. Instead, the victory over South Carolina meant some revenge for 2022, and momentum heading into the break.

At 4-1 (1-1 SEC), Tennessee has a lot of season still in front of it.

Let’s start on offense. At QB, the numbers for Joe Milton are good. He’s completing 63% of his passes for 1,164 yards (232.8 per game). He has 9 TD passes and 3 INTs. Milton also has 4 rushing TDs and picks up 27.8 yards a game on the ground.

But the sky-high expectations for Milton have yet to be realized. The offense he commands ended the 5th week of the season ranked 21st in the country. Again, that’s good, but not the top ranking we saw from this offense a year ago.

Decreased production out of the passing game has kept UT a few steps behind their blistering 2022 pace. Oregon transfer WR Dont’e Thornton, Jr. was supposed to help pick up the slack following the departures of Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman to the NFL. But Thornton has been banged up, and has caught only 7 passes in 4 games. UT needs Thornton the step up even more than before following the season-ending injury to Bru McCoy.

Squirrel White hasn’t found the end zone yet, which has kept Vols fans from picking up a free “day after TD” 6-pack of soda from a Knoxville area convenience store (gotta love NIL!). But White still leads the Vols in catches (26) and receiving yards (276).

Tight ends Jacob Warren and McCallan Castle are contributing in the passing game too, with 7 catches apiece and a combined 3 TDs. But this teams misses Swiss army knife Princeton Fant, who was a matchup nightmare for opponents, no matter where Josh Heupel asked him to play.

Tennessee’s run game? Well, there’s not much reason for complaint in that category. The Vols are 4th in the country after 5 weeks, averaging 231.2 yards per game. Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson are seemingly interchangeable, combining for an even 1,000 rushing yards and 9 scores.

Defensively the Vols are continuing to show improvement. Ranked 25th in the nation in total defense after Week 5, this is a group that has shown that it can create havoc in the opposing backfield. They led the country in sacks with 22 and were 5th in tackles for loss with 9.4 per game.

LB Aaron Beasley was supposed to be the leader of this defense and has done just that. Beasley is tops on the Vols with 33 tackles and 8.5 tackles for loss, plus 2 sacks. But the breakout player is James Pearce Jr., a one-man wrecking crew. Pearce has 7 tackles for loss and a team leading 5 sacks. It’s hard to find a better edge rusher in the FBS these days.

Kamal Hadden’s memorable pick-6 against South Carolina notwithstanding, Tennessee’s defense is average when it comes to forcing turnovers. They have only recovered 2 fumbles and collected 4 INTs. Those 6 turnovers put them in a tie for 76th in the country in turnovers gained.

On special teams, punter Jackson Ross has bounced back from a shaky debut against Virginia, now averaging 42 yards per punt, with 8 of his 21 efforts landing inside the opponent’s 20. Place kicker Charles Campbell has made 7 of his 8 FG attempts, with his only miss coming from 50+ yards. Josh Turbyville has earned touchbacks on 27 of his 34 kickoffs, but 4 of those landed out of bounds, something that gives coaches more even more gray hairs.

In the next few weeks, we will learn a lot more about the 2023 Vols. Home to Texas A&M, road trips to Alabama and Kentucky … that’s a much more difficult stretch of games than they’ve faced to this point.

The 2022 Tennessee Volunteers were a historically good group that has cast a shadow over this year’s team.

Will the 2023 Vols write their own positive legacy?

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A year ago, the Vols’ 63-38 drubbing in Columbia ended their Playoff hopes. And while Saturday night’s 41-20 victory doesn’t make up for what might have been in 2022, it does give the Vols and their fans some much desired payback.

Most telling, South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler threw for 438 yards and 6 TDs against the Vols in in 2022 but could only muster 169 yards in this year’s meeting.

Let’s take an in depth look at a well-deserved victory for the No. 21 Vols (4-1, 1-1).

Player of the Week: RB Jaylen Wright

The Vols have a trio of RBs who match up well against any such trio in the country. Against South Carolina, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson combined for 108 rushing yards and they each had a TD.

But it was Jaylen Wright’s turn in that rotation to have the lion’s share of opportunities.

Wright gained 123 yards on 16 carries, 7.7 per attempt. He also had the 1st score of the game, a 42-yard run that capped a 94-yard drive.

Wright was banged up in the UTSA win a week ago, getting only 4 carries in that game. But he looked healthy against USC.

Freshman of the Week: Arion Carter

We seem to write the same thing after every game. The Vols are a veteran team that doesn’t play many freshmen. Tennessee LB Arion Carter finished the game with 3 tackles, including 1 for a loss.

Give fellow freshman LB Jeremiah Telander some credit as well, as he collected 2 tackles and was very active against the Gamecocks in some key spots.

Biggest surprise: Kamal Hadden Pick 6

There might not be a more maligned player on the Vols roster than senior DB Kamal Hadden. Missed tackles seem to happen on his watch a whole bunch.

But Hadden was in the right place at the right time near the end of the 1st half. Rattler’s overthrown pass found its way into Hadden’s mitts, and he coasted 28 yards into the end zone, giving UT a 24-10 lead. The Gamecocks would get no closer.

It was good to see Hadden get noticed for something positive.

Biggest concern: Bru McCoy’s health

In the 2nd quarter, Tennessee 5th year senior WR Bru McCoy was carted off the field after having his right foot twisted awkwardly following a 17-yard reception. McCoy was taken to UT Medical Center.

We will know more about McCoy’s status in the next day or so, but it didn’t look good. The top priority is, of course, McCoy’s health. You want to see him have a shot at playing at the next level when his Tennessee career comes to an end, whenever that is.

As far as this season is concerned, without McCoy there will be a lot more pressure on Squirrel White and Ramel Keyton to pick up the slack.

Developing trend: Neyland dominance

Do you know the last time the Vols lost a game at Neyland Stadium? It was Nov. 17, 2021, against eventual national champion Georgia.

Since then, the Vols have won 12 straight home games. It has once again turned into one of the most intimidating environments for visitors.

A lot has been made about the noise that the Vols crowd brings to help their team. They’ve posted 9 straight sellouts, and the 101,000+ are making their presence felt.

Key stat: QB sacks

Tennessee entered the South Carolina contest as one of the top groups in the nation at getting to the opposing QB. They averaged 4 sacks per game, 3rd best in the country.

On Saturday night, the Vols sacked Rattler 6 times. James Pearce Jr. had 2 of those sacks, and now has 5 on the season. The Vols need to continue to get that type of pressure as the season hits its 2nd half.

First impression about Week 6: Bye

The Vols will get 2 weeks to prepare for Texas A&M. Which is good, because backup QB Max Johnson didn’t look very much like a backup in A&M’s win over Arkansas.

Johnson completed 17 of 28 passes for 210 yards and 2 scores against the Razorbacks. He also rushed for 57 yards on 9 attempts.

Tennessee has an unwelcome history of making backup QBs look like Joe Montana. If that continues, the Vols will have their hands full.

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As all Tennessee fans remember, the Vols’ 63-38 loss in Columbia last November cost Tennessee a chance to make the College Football Playoff. Gamecocks fans remember playing the role of spoiler and have been boasting about it ever since.

UT has waited for this game for more than 10 months and will also have to wait until its 7:30 p.m. kickoff. That will give fans plenty of extra time to tailgate. Tennessee will also return their “Dark Mode” alternate uniforms. Black jerseys, black pants, black helmets.

It’s going to be a rowdy atmosphere at Neyland Stadium. Think “2021 Ole Miss game” kind of rowdy. Security guards will be on the lookout for mustard bottles and golf balls.

It looks like the Vols offense is back on track after 2 subpar performances. It picked up 512 yards against UTSA, 303 of those on the ground. Dylan Sampson had 139 rushing yards, plus 2 scores.

That running game is the Vols strength, averaging 229.5 yards per game, 8th best in the nation. Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small and Sampson make up a formidable trio that should be able to move the ball down the field against the Gamecocks.

QB Joe Milton was great in the 1st half against UTSA but was tackled awkwardly late in the 2nd quarter. He wasn’t as effective in the 2nd half after that hit. Milton was seen at UT Medical Center on Sunday, but Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel says that was only precautionary, and that he expects Milton to play “really well” against South Carolina.

Defensively, the Vols get into the opponent’s backfield early and often. They average 9.8 tackles for loss and 4 sacks per contest, 3rd best nationally in each category. Tennessee needs to pressure QB Spencer Rattler, who has taken advantage of his 2nd chance with the Gamecocks after transferring from Oklahoma.

Rattler is South Carolina’s best player, and certainly looked the part last week against Mississippi State, completing 90% of his passes. He was terrific against the Vols a year ago, completing 30 of 37 passes for 438 yards and 6 TDs. Tennessee’s secondary won’t stop him on Saturday night but can’t allow him to roll over them to that extent again.

Xavier Legette is Rattler’s top target. He’s having a big year for the Gamecocks with 27 catches for 556 yards and 3 TDs.

The Gamecocks will try to wing the football all over Shields-Watkins Field. They average 340 passing yards per game, 8th best in the nation. Now, on the flip side of that coin .. does South Carolina run the ball effectively? No, my friends, they do not. The Gamecocks average only 75.8 yards per game, a woeful 126th in the nation.

Defensively, South Carolina is … well, not great. Last in the SEC in total defense, last in yards allowed per play, last in pass defense, last in opponents 1st downs per game.

Tennessee’s offense could be in for a huge night.

Redshirt junior LB Debo Williams leads the Gamecocks with 31 tackles. Defensive tackle TJ Sanders is tops on the team with 3 sacks.

This has been an annual meeting ever since South Carolina began SEC play in 1992. With the addition of Texas and Oklahoma next Fall, UT and USC will no longer play every year. That’s a shame, because these have been quite often entertaining contests, no matter if either team was competing for a division crown.

Tennessee and South Carolina are going to each light up the scoreboard on Saturday night. I just think there will be a few more light bulb burnouts on the home side.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 42, South Carolina 34

The post Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. South Carolina appeared first on Saturday Down South.

The Vols scored points a plenty. The Vols took some shots deep and mashed the Roadrunners in the running game. The Vols got to the opposing QB.

This is what good teams are supposed to do against opponents with less talent.

Let’s investigate what the Vols did right, did wrong, and where things stand after Week 4.

Player of the Week: Joe Milton

Tennessee’s QB might have heard the skeptics over the last 7 days, and if he did, Saturday afternoon was a pretty good response.

Milton completed 18 of 31 passes for 209 yards and 2 scores, but his biggest play came on the ground. On the 1st play from scrimmage, Milton fakes a handoff then outran the entire UTSA defense. That 81-yard TD scamper proved that yes, he is more than capable of making plays with his feet.

Four of the Vols 1st 5 possessions resulted in TDs. He was in total control of this offense. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

Freshman of the Week: LB Jeremiah Telander

Tennessee is a veteran team. You don’t see a whole lot of freshmen getting serious playing time.

On Saturday the Vols were able to get some of their young guys in the game in the 2nd half. LB Jeremiah Telander had 3 tackles against the Roadrunners. This was only the 2nd time he’s seen the field at UT.

Biggest surprise: Dylan Sampson’s return

Not to harp too much on the Florida game … but man, a lot went wrong that night for Tennessee. For example, how did Dylan Sampson not get one carry against the Gators?

Against UTSA, Sampson was back in a big way, with 11 carries for a career high 139 yards and 2 scores. Now Sampson has 6 TDs on the season. He also had 1 catch for 20 yards.

Game flow certainly affects how coordinators call plays, but Sampson is just too talented to be standing on the sidelines.

Biggest concern: 3rd quarter nap

The Vols went into halftime leading 31-0. The game was theirs, and there was little urgency coming out of the locker room.

And it showed as the Vols’ 1st 2 drives finished with punts and only netted 14 yards on 9 plays. Defensively, Tennessee also struggled, giving up 75-yard and 66-yard TD drives.

Yes, the game wasn’t in doubt, but there are tougher games ahead, games which will require a 60-minute effort.

Developing trend: Defensive pressure

Heading into the UTSA game, the Vols defense was tied for 7th in the nation with 12 sacks. They picked up 4 more against the Roadrunners. They were ranked 2nd in tackles for loss with 32 and had 7 more on Saturday.

This Tennessee defense has its faults, but they continue to create havoc in their opponent’s backfield.

Key stat: 303 rushing yards

Tennessee is at its best when the running game is clicking on all cylinders. Against UTSA, the Vols ran the ball 33 times for 303 yards. Sampson had those 139 rushing yards and Milton had 89. The Vols best 2 RBs, Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright, had 61 and 16 yards respectively.

The Vols averaged over 9 yards per carry. You are going to win a lot of football games with those numbers.

First impression about the South Carolina game

You can make the case that this is the biggest game of the season for the Vols. Win, and you are 4-1 heading into the bye week, feeling good about the future. Lose and you are 3-2 with 2 divisional losses and big hills left to climb.

There’s also the revenge factor. Tennessee’s loss at South Carolina last November ended the Vols’ playoff chances. UT fans now have a growing dislike bordering on hatred of Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer.

This game gets a 7:30 p.m. kickoff at Neyland Stadium and I’m getting 2021 Ole Miss flashbacks.

Hide your golf balls … hide your mustard bottles.

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